Vladimir Putin is adding some water to the wine – for the first time since the start of the war on February 24. After a regional summit in Kazakhstan, the Russian president said Friday that the “partial mobilization” that has sparked widespread panic among the Russian population will end. According to Putin, 222,000 reservists have now been called up and the target of calling up 300,000 men has almost been achieved. “I think in two weeks the mobilization activities will be completed.”
It is a remarkable step and a sharp break with the va-banquestrategy that Putin seemed to have opted for after a string of Ukrainian victories on the battlefield. On September 21, Putin announced mobilization, then annexed the Russian-occupied Ukrainian regions and on Monday, in revenge for the attack on the Crimean Bridge, launched day-long rocket attacks on Ukrainian cities. Now he suddenly said that such “mass attacks” were no longer necessary.
In recent days, his propagandists seem to have lost faith in victory. “The special military operation has been running for eight months,” sighed host Vladimir Solovyov during a radio broadcast. “But of course it is no longer a special operation. We are fighting against the whole of NATO.”
war hiter
His colleague Margarita Simonjan, editor-in-chief of Russia Today and one of the biggest warmongers, went one step further and posted a prayer on her Telegram channel – a prayer for peace.
The statements by Putin’s top propagandists – who are in close contact with the Kremlin – could indicate that the president wants to prepare the population for bad news. In the northern Donbas, the Russians hold out only with the greatest possible effort – probably at the cost of heavy casualties.
The BBC’s Russian-language service quoted a telephone conversation from a mobilized soldier from the Chelyabinsk region of the southern Urals. “We were sent to the combat unit like cannon fodder on day one, we hadn’t shot once,” said the man. He himself was only wounded, but five comrades can not tell.
In recent weeks, Putin’s options to turn the odds of war have dwindled at a rapid rate. The secret clause of his mobilization decree, according to sources from the independent Russian newspaper Novaja Gazeta a maximum of 1.2 million civilians to be called up, but the chaotically proceeding mobilization led to the flight of hundreds of thousands of Russian men abroad and great unrest among the population. There have been no large-scale protests, but Putin probably knows not to overplay his hand. So too are his almost routine threats with nuclear weapons in Ukraine – which would inevitably lead to a direct confrontation with the US and NATO.
Under these circumstances, it seems best for Putin to try and buy time – in the hopes that the odds will turn this spring. Recent hints from Moscow that Russia is willing to negotiate fit this delaying tactic.
approaching winter
In Washington and Brussels, however, they are determined to keep up the pressure. A meeting of NATO defense ministers this week focused on further support for Ukraine and the Ukrainian armed forces’ upcoming winter campaign.
In a few weeks, the temperature in eastern Ukraine will drop below freezing. “So there was a lot of focus on equipment that enables Ukrainians to be active in winter,” NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said: “Generators, tents, everything needed to stay operational in winter.”
The approaching winter is about the only certainty in the erratic Ukraine war. In recent weeks, Putin has always brought new surprises, and the West has had to move quickly. This week’s rocket shower was met with an accelerated delivery of anti-aircraft defense systems to Kiev.
The Russian annexation of the occupied regions was politically opposed. The United Nations General Assembly condemned the land grab – and the number of abstentions from ‘friendly’ states was smaller than Moscow was used to. The Council of Europe, which had already expelled Russia earlier, even formally described the country as a ‘terrorist state’.
A non-nuclear answer
NATO tried to radiate unity and decisiveness this week, said Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren. Decisiveness was certainly there, given the large number of countries that were willing to supply air defense systems – or, as in the case of the Netherlands, missiles. EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said he hopes foreign ministers will decide on Monday to again allocate additional funds for weapons to Ukraine and finally give the green light for an EU training mission for Ukrainian soldiers.
In terms of unity, after all a core product of a military alliance, things were a bit more complicated. The US had previously warned of “catastrophic” consequences if Putin decided to deploy nuclear weapons in Ukraine, without specifying what the US response would look like. However, both French President Emmanuel Macron and EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell felt it necessary this week to make it clear that the Western answer will not be nuclear.
“Any nuclear attack on Ukraine will be answered,” said Borrell this week at the opening of a new training course for European diplomats: “Not a nuclear response, but a military response so strong it will wipe out the Russian military.”
In a TV interview, Macron said France’s ‘Force de Frappe’ is for the security of NATO territory, and will not be used in retaliation for a nuclear attack on a third country. Macron probably wanted to reassure the French public, but he broke with tradition of not making statements about the use of nuclear weapons – a cornerstone of the deterrence.
Ollongren did not want to comment on Macron’s statement in Brussels. She adhered to the conventional line: threatening with nuclear weapons is irresponsible, their use can count on a fierce reaction, but we do not specify what that reaction is.
Besides the nuclear option, Putin has other trump cards up his sleeve. Over the past week, concerns have grown that ally Belarus might still get involved in the war: under the guise of a terrorist threat at the border with Ukraine, security services were given extra powers and the arrival of Russian soldiers was announced to assist with border security. .
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of October 15, 2022