Presidents in Latin America may fear US intervention after Maduro’s kidnapping

If it wasn’t clear to the world after Donald Trump’s first year in office, it became clear in early 2026: take his threats seriously. Under this president, the United States once again regards the entire Western Hemisphere as ‘their’ exclusive sphere of influence. The White House announced this last month in a new National Security Strategy, which dusted off the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine and expanded it with a ‘Trump corollary’. Less than a month later, this was made concrete with the kidnapping of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

On Saturday, Trump then threatened that “all political and military leaders must realize that what happened to Maduro can happen to them too.” In presidential palaces of Latin America and the Caribbean, the fearful question can now be asked: can I also be lifted from my bed? And: how do I gain the favor of this White House?

Cuba – top prize for Rubio

Maduro’s kidnapping will set off alarm bells, especially in Cuba. The ailing communist regime in Havana is heavily dependent on Venezuelan support. Maduro’s illustrious predecessor Hugo Chávez began supplying Havana with dirt-cheap oil around the turn of the century; in return, Cuba sent a contingent of doctors and nurses to Venezuela. The Cuban secret service – itself trained by the East German Stasi – also helped the chavists set up their own police state.

The regime founded by the late Fidel Castro has survived thirteen successive American governments since 1959. It would be a great honor for Trump if he became the president who overthrew the regime in Havana. This applies even more to his foreign minister Marco Rubio: as the son of Cuban immigrants, he has been fighting communism in the region his entire political career.

Since 2019, Cuba has been led by Miguel Díaz-Canel, who lacks the historical authority of the Castros. The country faces chronic economic problems, which have worsened since US sanctions hit the crucial tourism sector. More often than not, electricity is not available – or only in the tourist resorts, which still generate some foreign currency. Now that Trump has been cutting off Venezuelan oil supplies to the island for weeks with a “total naval blockade”, the energy crisis can only worsen.

It is said that Cuban elite troops provided security for Maduro until the last moment. In tabloid The New York Post Trump confirmed this on Saturday: “Many Cubans lost their lives defending Maduro. That was not a good one move.” But he ruled out military intervention. “No, Cuba will collapse on its own. Cuba is in very bad shape.”

Mexico – proud and vulnerable neighboring country

In recent months, Trump presented Maduro as a drug lord who would head the ‘Sun Cartel’. His capture will therefore reverberate loudly in Mexico: the vast majority of cocaine, heroin and fentanyl that Americans use enters the country via the southern border.

Should cartel leaders in Mexico now also fear a knock on the door from American commandos? In recent years, narco bosses in the US have been entrapped or caught and handed over by Mexico itself. But without one American army boot on Mexican soil, which would go down very badly in the proud neighboring country.

Radical Republicans have been advocating for years that the US should crack down on the cartels in Mexico militarily. Trump hinted at this on Saturday, shortly after Maduro’s capture. On Fox News he said that it is not center-left President Claudia Sheinbaum running the country, but the cartels. “I have asked her several times if she wants us to take out the cartels. ‘No, no, no, Mr. President, please’. So we will have to do something about that.”

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Nicaragua – member ‘tyrant troika’

In Trump’s first term, his neoconservative security adviser John Bolton spoke of a ‘Troika of Tyranny’, which included Nicaragua in addition to Venezuela and Cuba. Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega came to power (again) in the Central American country in 2007 and immediately sought rapprochement with Maduro (and Russia and China).

Ortega (80) has governed with an increasingly tough hand since the suppression of a popular uprising in 2014 and remains at least rhetorically ‘anti-imperialist’. However, especially since Trump’s return to power, he seems wary of provoking Washington. For example, for years Nicaragua allowed migrants from all over the world to join the route north to the US. The regime in Managua made millions from this, but it has now stopped doing this and is even taking back deported Nicaraguans from the US.

Pro-Trump camp – can grow

Trump’s security strategy speaks of ‘regional leaders’ with whom people want to work. In respectively Argentina, El Salvador and Ecuador There is already a libertarian, authoritarian right-wing and hard-right president who adopts a very Trumpist attitude. Self-declared ‘anarcho-capitalist’ Javier Milei cheered loudest from Buenos Aires on Saturday when Maduro was captured. He sees himself as the leader of an anti-socialist International.

This pro-Washington camp on the continent was already expanding in 2025 without Trump’s interference. In three elections (in Honduras, Chile and Bolivia) the left was voted out and exchanged for far- or center-right, more Washington-friendly governments.

This push to the right may continue this year. Trump threatened on Saturday that left-wing President Gustavo Petro Colombia “better to keep quiet” and could also be bombed “because he produces cocaine.” But the right seems likely to return to power in Bogotá soon, in elections this spring. In Peru the right also seems to be heading for a victory at the ballot box this year.

Brazil – regional superpower

Only in Brazil, which will hold presidential elections this fall, does the incumbent center-left president Lula seem to have a chance of winning. He stated on Saturday that the US has “crossed an unacceptable line” with its attack on Venezuela.

In this regional superpower, Trump would prefer to see an ally win: last year he supported the far-right ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, when he was prosecuted for his failed coup. That interference was in vain and Bolsonaro is now in jail. But in the coming campaign, Trump can support his son and intended successor Flávio.

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