PIMCO outlook 2026: This is how experts assess the opportunities for bonds, value stocks, crypto and gold
PIMCO has released its 2026 multi-asset outlook. The asset manager sees opportunities in value stocks, bonds and gold – but urges caution when it comes to cryptocurrencies.
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• PIMCO sees value stocks valued below historical averages and expects catch-up potential
• The asset manager recommends switching from cash to high-quality bonds
• When it comes to cryptocurrencies, the expert urges caution due to volatility and regulatory uncertainties
Value stocks with catch-up potential
US stock markets have valuations near historic highs – driven by a multi-year, tech-heavy rally. As PIMCO writes in its multi-asset outlook published December 8, 2025, the concentration of earnings in a handful of mega-cap technology stocks raises questions about sustainability. The AI investments of the big tech companies, which were previously financed from cash flow, are increasingly financed by taking on debt.
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However, beneath the surface there is a more nuanced picture, says Marc Seidner, CIO of Non-traditional Strategies at PIMCO. Value stocks are attractively valued compared to the historical average and offer potential for a return to the mean. According to Seidner, further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve combined with improved growth would be the best scenario for value stocks. In addition to China, PIMCO considers Korea and Taiwan particularly interesting in the emerging markets – these markets offer access to the technology sector at cheaper valuations.
Bonds instead of cash
PIMCO advises investors to shift excess cash holdings into high-quality bonds. During the Fed’s rate-cutting phase, holding cash involves opportunity costs and reinvestment risks, as cash holdings are continually reallocated into instruments with even lower returns.
Anyone who switches from cash to bonds can secure returns and benefit from price gains when interest rates fall. As can be seen from the PIMCO outlook, the asset manager prefers bonds with maturities of two to five years. Since inflation is once again closer to the central banks’ target values, bonds also have diversification potential again – in particular, due to their traditional negative correlation to stocks, they could cushion downward movements on the stock market.
Gold with potential, crypto with question marks
When it comes to commodities, PIMCO sees structural support for gold demand. Ongoing trade conflicts and rising national debt are likely to support the price of gold – an increase of up to 10 percent in 2026 is possible. However, in addition to fundamental factors, the gold rally was also strongly driven by momentum and liquidity, which is why short-term setbacks cannot be ruled out. In addition, the valuation appears high compared to the real returns.
Seidner urges caution when it comes to cryptocurrencies. These are a volatile investment instrument and may not have the classic characteristics of real investments – price setbacks such as those recently seen with Bitcoin have made this clear to many investors. With the rise of stablecoins and tokenized assets, digital finance may have a groundbreaking year ahead, but volatility, tax issues and regulatory uncertainty remain important factors.
PIMCO continues to see opportunities in the credit markets – particularly in large-volume financing with limited competition, in lending business with less risky consumers and in selected real estate financing.
D. Maier / editorial team finanzen.net