It seems that Pieter Omtzigt’s New Social Contract (NSC) and Geert Wilders’ PVV will become the largest parties in Brabant. The VVD led by Dilan Yesilgöz follows very close behind. This is evident from a poll by Newcom among 859 Brabanders. It also appears that many more people already know who they are going to vote for than two weeks ago.
Research agency Newcom, commissioned by Omroep Brabant, asked Brabant residents which party they will vote for in the upcoming House of Representatives elections. The poll ran from November 6 to 14. A lot can still change until the elections. You cannot see a poll as a prediction of the outcome.
The survey shows that about 20 percent do not yet know who they are going to vote for. This is considerably less than at the end of October, when more than 60 percent had not yet been resolved.
The success of Pieter Omtzigt’s NSC is no surprise, because that party also scores high in national polls. 19 percent of Brabanders say they will vote for that party.
More striking is the great success of the PVV with 18 percent. During the campaign and during debates, Geert Wilders often speaks out about topics that many Brabanders find important:
- healthcare (46 percent),
- migration (32 percent),
- livelihood security and purchasing power (20 and 29 percent).
The Christian Union (3 percent) also seems to benefit from this. The cabinet fell in July this year because VVD and Christian Union in particular could not agree on limiting family reunification for migrants. The Christian Union was strongly opposed to this and stood its ground. In this poll it seems that some voters appreciate that.
Here are the full results of the poll:
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Where there are winners, there are also losers. In this case these are VVD, CDA and BBB. While the VVD under the leadership of Prime Minister Mark Rutte still accounted for more than a quarter of Brabant votes, the party now loses 10 percent under the leadership of the new party leader Dilan Yesilgöz: 16 percent of respondents choose the VVD.
BBB collapses
There will also be disappointment at the BBB (7 percent). In March, Caroline van der Plas recorded a monster victory in the elections for the Provincial Council. Her party became the largest in all provinces. 18 percent of Brabant voters chose BBB. But the rise of Pieter Omtzigt now seems to throw a spanner in the works.
The fact that BBB collapsed the coalition negotiations in Brabant by coming up with additional demands at the last minute may not be appreciated by voters.
Deeper historical low
In March, the CDA reached a historic low during the same elections. This poll takes things even further: in Brabant, where you once could not ignore the CDA, only 5 percent say they will vote for this party.
This poll will also be a setback for the left-wing collaboration of GroenLinks and PvdA, led by Frans Timmermans. The list combination does not have to count on more than 10 percent of the respondents.
Other left-wing parties also appear to be backing down. This is how they score in the poll:
- SP (5 percent),
- D66 (4 percent),
- Party for the Animals (2 percent).
Volt remains the same.
This is how Brabant voted for the House of Representatives in 2021:
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Justification: Research agency Newcom asked 859 Brabanders what they plan to vote in the elections for the House of Representatives on Wednesday, November 22. The research results have been weighted by gender, age, region, education level and voting behavior during the elections for the Provincial Council in March 2023. This makes the research representative, with a reliability of 95 percent.
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Are you still floating? Then see here what parties think of the most important topics.
Debate of the South
In the run-up to the elections for the House of Representatives, Omroep Brabant, together with Omroep Zeeland and L1 in Limburg, will hold the Debate of the South on Saturday, November 18. The broadcast can be seen live on Saturday from 7:30 PM to 9:00 PM. The commentary can be viewed after 9 p.m. on Brabant+ and on the Omroep Brabant website/app. The national theme channel NOS Politics and News also broadcasts the debate live.
