According to experts, the international energy markets could be heading towards a decisive escalation of the oil crisis.
• Global oil supplies are shrinking at a rapid pace
• IEA director warns: Reserves will last for “several weeks,” but not indefinitely
• Analysts warn of a critical phase from June
The war between the US and Iran continues to simmer despite a ceasefire and oil prices remain at elevated levels amid the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing shortage of crude oil supplies is increasingly developing into a global supply crisis with potentially far-reaching economic consequences. Analysts and institutions such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) are now warning of a dynamic in which global oil reserves are shrinking more quickly and could soon be used up.
Warning that the buffer only lasts a few weeks
According to the IEA’s current “Oil Market Report” for May 2026, the balance between supply and demand has now deteriorated significantly: “More than ten weeks after the start of the war in the Middle East, increasing disruptions in oil deliveries from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil stocks at a record pace,” says the report. Specifically, “more than 14 million barrels have currently fallen [Rohöl] per day”, which, according to the IEA, represents an unprecedented supply shock. However, the gap between supply and demand is smaller because the market “had a supply surplus at the beginning of the crisis” and is also increasingly adapting to the current situation.
The International Energy Agency expects a slump in demand for the second quarter, but at the same time also predicts a structural undersupply in the market over the course of the year. According to Reuters, the IEA had already drastically revised its assessment and predicted that global oil supplies would fall by a total of around 3.9 million barrels per day this year as a result of the war. It had previously forecast only a decline of 1.5 million barrels per day.
Statements by IEA Chairman Fatih Birol, who warned of a rapid decline in commercial oil stocks, also received particular attention recently. Commercial inventories will last for “several weeks” at the moment, but “we should be aware of the fact that they are declining rapidly,” said Birol, according to “Reuters”. Although millions of barrels have already been released from strategic reserves, these reserves are also “not endless.”
From détente to structural crisis – analysts with gloomy forecasts
At the beginning of the year, the oil market was still considered comparatively well supplied. However, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, disruptions to key transport routes and reduced delivery volumes from producing regions have significantly impacted the global flow of oil. The result: According to analysts’ consensus, global inventories have fallen to their lowest level in years. In individual scenarios, possible price peaks are already being openly discussed, which could extend far beyond previous peak phases if there are further delivery failures.
According to numerous analysts, the global oil markets are moving towards a critical limit. According to “MarketWatch”, the high reserves at the beginning of the year initially “formed a cushion for the serious production losses”, but this phase could now be nearing its end. More and more market experts are therefore warning of an accelerating shortage.
Jaime Brito, executive director of refining and oil products at Dow Jones Energy, describes the situation to MarketWatch as a dynamic process with no short-term relief. The current standoff between the USA and Iran could last for weeks, which would be fatal for the energy markets. “From an energy perspective, this is one [lawinenartigen] “Snowball – and with every week that goes by, the markets are getting tighter,” said Brito.
According to the news site, JPMorgan experts also warned that industrialized countries’ commercial crude oil inventories could approach operationally critical levels by early June. “A key assumption of our framework is that the accelerating pace of oil depletion will ultimately force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz – one way or another,” said analysts at the US investment bank.
At Morgan Stanley, June is also seen as a critical point in time when the future of the oil markets will be decided. They are currently in a “race against time,” the experts wrote according to “MarketWatch” and warned that the combination of factors that has so far cushioned oil price fluctuations will collapse if the important strait remains closed through June. But even if the Strait of Hormuz opens, they don’t see any relief: Even then, it would still take weeks “until delivery flows start up again – and the markets would probably continue to price in the risk of potential further disruptions,” MarketWatch continues.
The coming weeks are a critical phase
Experts consider the coming weeks to be potentially crucial for the further development of the crisis on the oil market. According to the IEA and international analysts, if the supply situation does not stabilize, the market could enter a phase in which structural bottlenecks become even more noticeable in supply chains and prices.
This means that the global oil market is on the verge of a turning point: between temporary stabilization through reserves and the risk of a profound supply shock that could have an impact far beyond the energy sector.
Carolin Ludwig, editorial team at finanzen.net