Hi Geert, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov Putin’s speech at the Valdai Club is going to be ‘very, very important’. Why could that be?
“It’s kind of his job, of course, to emphasize how important it is what Putin says. Peskov has said that this speech is still often reread and analyzed. As a result, expectations are high. But practice shows that important things are rarely said at meetings like this. I don’t think Putin has much to add to what he has already said.
This week he met with the leaders of security services in other member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States, an organization of former Soviet republics. There he has already extensively discussed the threat from the West and explained how the world is becoming ‘multipolar’. In other words, how the hegemony of the United States is coming to an end. That is also the theme of this Valdai conference.’
‘What is striking about these kinds of meetings: there is a lot of talk about philosophical or political science subjects that are sometimes far removed from current events. I have just read the text presented as a discussion point for the conference. The word Ukraine only appears twice in it. That’s very bizarre, considering what’s happening there. This meeting also serves to divert attention from current events. Which will work out well: this will be talked about on TV all evening.’
At the beginning of the invasion, many rumors circulated that Putin is ill. How healthy does he seem at these kinds of speaking moments?
‘He looks quite normal, but otherwise there is nothing sensible to say about his health. You can watch his TV appearances, but Putin is a flesh and blood man: everyone has good days and bad days. Even doctors can hardly determine just how fresh Putin is on the basis of television images alone.’
Putin’s defense minister Sergei Shoygu this week accused Ukraine of making a “dirty bomb,” a conventional weapon that disperses nuclear radioactive waste. Ukraine and NATO countries dismiss this as complete nonsense. What does the Kremlin want to achieve with such accusations?
“These kinds of accusations are intended to denigrate Ukraine, to portray it as a terrorist state under the thumb of the United States. In the spring, Moscow said there would be United States biological labs in Ukraine. Kyiv would want to do all kinds of bad things with that. It then faded into the background.
“Just now, Foreign Minister Lavrov said again at the Valdai conference that the Russians have information that Ukraine is working on that dirty bomb. It is denied by all Western countries. Who knows, but it fits the Kremlin’s rhetoric.’
Should we fear a nuclear escalation in this war?
“We see that sometimes decisions are made in Moscow that are irrational. Many experts had foreseen the problems Russia now faces in Ukraine, but Moscow sent its troops to Ukraine anyway. So decisions are sometimes made in Moscow that turn out very badly for Russia and go against common sense.
“The lesson of that is that you can’t rule out anything. A nuclear escalation would be disastrous for all participants, so rationally it is unlikely that it will actually come to that. But it is an option that everyone keeps in mind.’