Week 17 of the NFL is behind us and the picture is starting to become clearer. We may have already found our MVP, while the Dallas Cowboys shouldn’t have much to be excited about after a chaotic weekend. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs are missing an important part of their successful past. The findings of the New Year’s Eve weekend.
NFL: Lamar Jackson is the MVP!
I didn’t really want to give this person a platform, but it fits into this story, so a quick explanation: In the last few days, a statement from a radio host from “FOX Sports Radio” named Monse Bolaños made the rounds, which ultimately led to the explanation that Lamar Jackson was pretty good, but she wasn’t “quarterbacky” enough to win the MVP title.
She emphasized that that doesn’t mean she doesn’t like Jackson, but that he doesn’t play quarterback well enough. I don’t want to accuse her of racism, but what she said afterwards was reminiscent of the usual prejudices that you often hear about black quarterbacks, especially in college. He’s a top athlete, but… And as if that wasn’t enough, she also explained that running back Christian McCaffrey or wide receiver Tyreek Hill should be the MVP this year.
Now that everyone is in the picture – and I don’t want to go into any more of this nonsense, I don’t have that much time this week – let’s see what Lamar Jackson says after these statements that he hasn’t commented on made room for it.
In short: That was pretty “quarterbacky” what he did in the 56:19 win over the Miami Dolphins. As a reminder, the Dolphins were the Ravens’ main challenger in the battle for the AFC’s top seed and they were stomped into the ground without being tipped.
And Lamar threw more touchdowns (5) than incompletions (3). He had a perfect passer rating of 158.3 and an ultra-efficient 0.95 EPA/Play. To put it trivially, this means that basically every play he made was worth a point.
The bottom line is that others are better in various statistics, including Brock Purdy of the 49ers, for example. But there’s also this stat: The Ravens have now won ten games against teams with positive records, and Jackson has thrown 21 touchdown passes against such teams. Both are best values in the NFL. That being said, only McCaffrey (966) has posted more rushing yards against teams over .500 than Jackson (703).
So it’s fair to say that Lamar Jackson is the best player/quarterback this year against the toughest opponents. Just the previous week he and his team dismantled the top team in the NFC, and now this was followed by an even clearer win against probably the second-best team in the AFC. The MVP race should be over.
NFL: Dallas Cowboys with known problems
At this point I don’t want to go into much detail about the chaos at the end of the game against the Lions. On the one hand, I don’t want to start the new year with more frustration about strange refereeing performances – we’ll definitely have plenty of reason for that in the coming weeks! On the other hand, “ESPN” found out that another adventurous call from Brad Allen’s crew made this situation with Taylor Decker and Co. possible in the first place. In this respect, we are talking about compensatory injustice here.
But that and the Philadelphia Eagles’ defeat on Sunday shouldn’t make the Cowboys too happy. They are certainly in control of their own destiny now and should be able to win in Washington and clinch the NFC East. But what then? The game against the Lions showed once again that the Cowboys don’t look too confident even at home against teams that aren’t a total disaster.
To make matters worse, the well-known problems of a Mike McCarthy team also arose against the Lions. And I don’t even mean the total failure of the defense on the Lions’ last drive. What’s more important to me is that, just at a time when running would actually have made sense, McCarthy suddenly preferred to rely on sometimes risky passes. One even sailed far out of bounds.
Clock management has always been a problem for McCarthy and it has now become clear again. Instead of at least forcing the Lions to take their last timeouts on the way to the field goal to make it 20:13, they stopped the clock several times with unnecessary incompletions. In the end, the offensively extremely potent opponent still had 1:41 minutes left on the clock, a lot of time in today’s NFL to pull off another touchdown drive. The red zone was reached with 27 seconds to play and the end zone with 23 seconds left on the clock.
And of course, if the referees hadn’t whistled Hendershot’s tripping against Hendershot beforehand, it would probably have been easier to rely on the run game, especially since it wouldn’t have been 1st & 25. But even then, I wouldn’t be overly confident that McCsrthy would have found a way to keep the Lions in the game.
The last two adventurous playoff finishes are still fresh and basically went according to formula. Why should it be any different this time?
NFL: Kansas City Chiefs miss Eric Bieniemy
The Kansas City Chiefs have won the AFC West again and will start the playoffs at home. They’ve already secured third place in the AFC and will therefore face the number 6 seed in the AFC – whoever that may be – on Super Wild Card Weekend. But even though they struggled to a home win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17, it’s worth noting how difficult everything seems to be for them this season.
How many times have we talked about drops? How often did Chiefs players make mental mistakes? Think of the various false starts and illegal formations that were solely the fault of right tackle Jawaan Taylor? Unforgettable Kadarius Toney and his drops and offsides against the Bills. Another “milestone” of this team’s indiscipline followed on Sunday.
Technically it was a special teams faux pas, but since it was committed by a wide receiver, let’s chalk it up to the offense. Richie James accomplished the feat of catching a punt in his own end zone and then carrying the ball out. He was stopped at his own 9-yard line. Luckily for him, a drive followed that ultimately gave the Chiefs a field goal, but was that really necessary?
In the run-up to the game there was talk that a few things had been changed during the week and, above all, the playbook had been cleaned up. Significantly fewer plays, significantly less originality and more solid plays that you can confidently master, they said. Whatever was actually changed, it wasn’t particularly convincing.
Chiefs offense no longer efficient
And it wasn’t efficient, an attribute that was usually attributed to the Chiefs offense. Patrick Mahomes had just 0.04 EPA/Play and 1.3 Total EPA. A frightening value for what is actually the best quarterback in the league. They were 1-3 in the red zone, which also meant they only got into the red zone three times. Against a Bengals team that, if things had gone better, would have opened the second half with a two-score lead – a goal line stop prevented that scenario.
In general, the defense remains the only thing that is reliable for the Chiefs at the moment. But why is it? Is it just because the quality on receivers just isn’t good this year? Or is it due to a lack of quality in the coaching staff, who lost a role in the run-up to this season that some people had not given too much importance to? We’re talking, of course, about Eric Bieniemy, the team’s longtime offensive coordinator, who is working in Washington this year.
He was, in a sense, the “enforcer” in this offense. If Andy Reid was the good cop, Bieniemy was the bad cop. The one who kept order, if you will. There were even complaints about him in DC at the start of the season that he was too tough for the Commanders’ pros. And it’s exactly this tough dog that would probably do the Chiefs good given all the recent indiscipline. In any case, successor Matt Nagy doesn’t seem to be able to fill these shoes sufficiently.
The Chiefs can still go far, and with this defense they even have what it takes to reach the Super Bowl again. I just don’t have faith in that at the moment, as in recent times the team that has a really good offense has usually come out on top. And you won’t find one like this in KC at the moment.
NFL: New England Patriots should keep Belichick, but…
It has been clear since New Year’s Eve that the New England Patriots will finish a season in last place in the AFC East for the first time since 2000. With a week to go they have twelve defeats, which is already the most in Robert Kraft’s era as team owner. It is also the most for Bill Belichick in 29 years as a head coach in the NFL and the most for the Patriots since 1992.
All of this actually speaks for itself, doesn’t it? Time for a fresh start, time to clean things up next Monday, the infamous “Black Monday” in the NFL. But it’s not quite that simple. On Sunday in Buffalo the game was close again until the end. The Patriots, although their offense had a clear quality deficit compared to the Bills, were competitive until the end. Just like they always have been for weeks.
The defense remains strong. Despite numerous notable failures, it is in the top 10 in terms of DVOA, is probably the most efficient unit against the run and is also in the top 10 overall in terms of EPA/Play. They beat the Steelers, who are still fighting for the playoffs, in Pittsburgh and they even won in Denver, which has never been a good place for New England in the past. They kept up with the Chiefs for a long time and had a span of three games in a row in November in which they never allowed more than ten points. They lost all three games, but not because the defense faltered.
The Bills and Josh Allen held the Patriots to 281 total yards on Sunday. In the end, if you will, a pick-six was the difference. Bailey Zappe came back down to earth and threw three interceptions and Pharaoh Brown also lost a fumble. And yet in the end it was only one touchdown short of the second win of the season against the Bills.
Belichick separation makes sense at first glance
So how can you improve this situation and get the team back on track? Parting ways with Belichick certainly makes sense on the surface, but would it really help? He continues to be an outstanding coach when it comes to defense. Not many would have compensated for failures like those of people like Matt Judon or Christian Gonzalez as well as he did. His problem in recent years was that he seemed unable to recognize and develop offensive talent with his staff.
Belichick’s mantra has always been to do what’s best for the team. The best thing for this team would be to install guys who are capable of identifying offensive talent. If that means hiring a new general manager to help Belichick, that would probably be the way to go without tearing down existing structures. You also have to seriously consider installing a new, innovative offensive coordinator. The return of Bill O’Brien apparently did not lead to success, but this could also be due to the lack of staff.
The alternative, of course, would be to clean up completely. Jerod Mayo was once in the room as a successor. But the current inside linebackers coach is one of the Belichick coaching tree. Almost all examples around the league show that such candidates don’t work without Belichick. In this respect, it would just be a continuation of what no longer worked recently. If Kraft wants to be competitive again relatively quickly, his only option is a complete restart or a reboot with Belichick including offensive support from outside.
However, it is doubtful whether this is realistic, especially since Belichick is not known for being persuaded. And outside coaching staff isn’t something he’s particularly keen on relying on either.
Marcus Blumberg