News item | 12-12-2023 | 4:00 pm
The conceivability of an attack against the Netherlands has increased to such an extent that the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV) has increased the threat level from 3 (significant) to 4 (substantial). This means that there is a real chance that an attack will take place in the Netherlands. The NCTV writes this in the Terrorism Threat Assessment Netherlands December 2023. The previous Terrorism Threat Assessment Netherlands (DTN) already outlined an increased terrorist threat, because jihadist organizations were preparing to commit terrorist attacks in Europe.
A sum of developments increases the threat level. The violent conflict in Israel and the Palestinian territories, Koran violations in various European countries and calls for attacks from terrorist organizations have increased the threat from jihadism. The recent attacks in neighboring countries show that individuals are responding to these calls. A number of arrests in neighboring European countries of suspects who intended to commit an attack for a jihadist motive are also examples of this. In addition, the threat from right-wing extremism and anti-institutional extremism remains unabated.
Increased jihadist threat
The terrorist threat in the Netherlands arising from jihadism is increasing. Organizations such as ISIS and al-Qaeda are using the Gaza war to encourage sympathizers to commit attacks in the West. In addition, these organizations call for attacks in revenge for Koran violations in various European countries. Due to these circumstances, individuals or small groups within the jihadist movement may feel called to resort to violence. These events not only have a mobilizing effect for Dutch jihadists, but also for radical Islamic persons outside the jihadist movement.
In various European countries, including the Netherlands, suspects were arrested in 2023 who intended to commit an attack for a jihadist motive. These arrests show that jihadists want to commit attacks and are making preparations to do so, but also show that the European intelligence and security services can recognize terrorism and thwart attacks.
In addition, online propaganda campaigns by, and online contacts with, ISIS and its Afghan affiliate Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) can inspire people to violence. Attacks in France, Belgium and the United Kingdom since October illustrate the risks that continue to be posed by radicalized individuals inspired by current events and terrorist organizations.
Radicalization of young jihadists and right-wing extremists largely online
The online world has played a relatively large role in recent years, not only in jihadism but also within right-wing extremism, when it comes to spreading propaganda, networking and acquiring new contacts. Online hatred towards Jews and LGBTQ+ people is also increasing in the Netherlands.
The online dimension is taking an increasingly prominent place in people’s experiences and extremists are capitalizing on this. They look for like-minded people from all over the world and then communicate via secret and encrypted chats. It is conceivable that a minor or young adult might turn to violence after being radicalized within the right-wing extremist online environment. This threat remains unabated. It is striking that these young jihadists and right-wing extremists do not always radicalize towards violence based on an ideology, but that some of them actually look for a suitable ideology based on existing fantasies of violence.
There are also several known examples in the Netherlands of young jihadists who radicalize outside the known physical networks, under the influence of online propaganda and boosters or through loose online contacts with supporters at home and abroad. Arrests show that they can switch to planning attacks, whether or not in collaboration with like-minded people throughout Europe. These are still relatively small numbers.
Threat level
In December 2019, the threat level in the Netherlands was lowered from 4 to 3. Since then, the chance of an attack has been ‘imaginable’. Threat level 4 means that that chance has now become ‘real’. There are no standard measures or national advice linked to the increased threat level. The detailed information from the DTN enables security partners (such as the police, municipalities and ministries) to take measures to combat the threat. Naturally, all safety partners are alert and continuous assessment is made of where and how any additional measures are required. In the past period, additional safety measures have been taken where necessary, about which no announcements are ever made. The threat level is also a way to make society extra aware of and provide information about the threat.