A black swan is what political consultants define as an unexpected event and gigantic proportions that, due to its alone appearance, is able to change the result of elections and even sink a government.
For example, a corruption scandal a few days after the elections.
Or a wild and bloodthirsty crime that causes people to take to the streets.
Or a revelation on the narcos contacts of a candidate.
Or a health emergency that causes more than one hundred deaths.
In general, when it appears on the horizon, it is always a single black swan because with that it reaches and left over. But not in the libertarian Argentina: here, the swans are arriving in Alegre Beach, all at the same time. Let’s review.
First it was the case of contaminated fentanyl that left a tendal of fatal victims, exposed an entrepreneur like Ariel García Furfaro and complicated equally to a Kirchnerism that could not hide his contacts with him and the government that failed in the controls that had prevented tragedy. Then, without continuity solution, the Coimagate of the Audios of Diego Spagnuolo arrived that revealed that the president of the president, Karina Milei, would be at the cusp of a corrupt collection system that demanded bribes of 3 percent to the pharmaceutical companies that would Province. As a third black swan we have the brutal triple femicide of Florencio Varela, in which it was evident that the absent state of the Austrian school is replaced by narco bands that act with total impunity and move in a huge released zone. And finally, the fourth swan is represented by the AFFAIRE of the head of the libertarian list, José Luis Espert, and the revelations about irregular financing of his 2019 campaign: who put money for that adventure -200 thousand dollars- is a businessman arrested and indicated for his contacts with drug trafficking, “Fred” Machado. Full cardboard.
Consultants and political scientists are able to predict what happens to the appearance of a black swan in the campaign. But four, honestly, seem too many. Javier Milei already experienced at the polls, a few weeks ago, how society reacts to this fateful combination of economic malaria and series scandals. And now, his main candidate in the Buenos Aires list, Espert, is in the media sight, to the point he had to delete the proselytizing activities of recent days.
Espert responds to these revelations saying that they are “an operation of Kirchnerism.” The president, on the other hand, speaks of “hairdressing gossip.” But they seem much more than that. And speaking of Espert and Milei, and also of “Fred” Machado, did they know they shared lawyers? One is Francisco Oneto, who represented all three. The other, defender of the president and his candidate, will also sound: one spagnuolo.
