A SpaceX IPO could raise up to $30 billion in 2026 and boost the entire space sector. What this could mean for Tesla investors.
• SpaceX may plan IPO in 2026, company valuation could be $1.5 trillion
• Starlink satellite service takes center stage; additional funds could facilitate investments and acquisitions
• Space stocks like EchoStar, Rocket Lab and Firefly Aerospace benefit
SpaceX IPO
Recently, Bloomberg reported that SpaceX, the space company of Elon Muskcould potentially venture onto the stock exchange floor as early as next year and thus raise up to $30 billion. SpaceX is already considered the world’s highest valued aerospace company and is valued at around $400 billion. The company now carries out more than half of all global launches into Earth orbit and has built a broad Internet service with its Starlink satellite network that is used by over 8 million customers.
Record-breaking rating
The targeted company valuation would be a remarkable $1.5 trillion. However, reliable estimates that could support this value are rare on Wall Street. One of the few comes from Cathie Wood (ARK Invest), who estimates SpaceX to be worth around $2.5 trillion by 2030. According to their model, the company could reach nearly $200 billion in revenue and more than $150 billion in EBITDA by then. ARK sees the majority of this revenue in the Starlink and Starshield satellite services. Wood is known for ambitious valuation scenarios. She expects Tesla shares to reach $2,600 by 2029 – the stock is currently trading at $446.
Byron Callan, an analyst at Capital Alpha Partners, said Wednesday that an IPO could provide SpaceX with additional funds to invest. “Starlink is the focus, but we also asked ourselves what role the company will play in the Golden Dome [Raketenabwehrsystem] will play,” said Barron’s Callan. He also pointed out that SpaceX would have equity capital that could be used for acquisitions, although this has not been common practice so far.
Industry in focus
Against the background of SpaceX’s possible IPO, the shares of other companies in the industry also came into focus. For example, the shares of EchoStar, a company that holds a stake in SpaceX worth around $11 billion (with a current SpaceX valuation of around $400 billion), have recently risen significantly. Within the last month, shares on the US tech stock exchange NASDAQ rose by more than 50 percent.
Other listed space companies also benefited: Rocket Lab’s shares increased in price by around 51 percent in the last 30 days, while Firefly Aerospace and Intuitive Machines increased by around 18 percent and 34 percent respectively (as of December 18, 2025).
Mark Boggett, CEO of space investment firm Seraphim, emphasized that while a SpaceX IPO would not directly affect the three companies, it could support the entire sector by improving capital flow to not-yet-profitable space startups. “A SpaceX IPO in 2026 would be an earthquake for the space economy,” Boggett said, according to Barron’s. He highlighted that SpaceX has significantly driven the transformation of the sector and created a global ecosystem with thousands of startups and scale-ups.
Importance for Tesla shares
According to market observers, a possible SpaceX IPO would also trigger new discussions about whether Elon Musk could organizationally merge his various technology companies in the future. The background is that Tesla owners recently approved a shareholder proposal that would allow Tesla to invest capital in Musk’s AI company xAI. However, this decision is only of a recommendatory nature and a significant number of shareholders also chose not to cast a vote.
Both Tesla’s participation in xAI and a stock market debut by SpaceX could be seen as building blocks on the way to a higher-level group of companies. According to Barron’s, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said: “We would be surprised if Tesla does not acquire a stake in SpaceX as part of its process.” Ives maintains his buy recommendation for Tesla shares and names a price target of $600. He assumes that the company’s advances in artificial intelligence – such as robotaxis and humanoid robots – will contribute significantly to profit growth in the future.
Editorial team finanzen.net
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