At the end of January of this year, the National Government announced a temporary reduction of 20% in withholdings to commodities, the most relevant case of soybeans, which went from 31% to 25%. In April, after several failed attempts, the Executive managed to approve a loan that, although it represented a short -term financial relief, implied difficult commitments to sustain over time. Among them, the requirement to rise again the withholdings were included, carrying the 33% soybean aliquot from July 1, a level that was enabled by the 2023 budget. It should political or economic margin.
On April 11, when the arrival of FMI funds was announced, the president of the Central Bank communicated the end of the remunerated passes and their replacement for the Le-Fis, a maneuver similar to that carried out by the current Minister of Economy in 2018 by changing the Lebacs for the Leliqs. However, just three months later, the Le-Fis also came to an end.
From April 14 until today, $ 15,329 million from various credits entered the country: US $ 12,000 million from the IMF, US $ 2,000 million of a repo with international banks, US $ 500 million from the World Bank, $ 329 million of IDB and US $ 500 million of the CAF. To this are added about US $ 1.5 billion for exports liquidated until Monday. With that income, the gross reserves of the BCRA slightly exceeded US $ 40,000 million at the end of Friday, July 18.
However, during that same period, the Government spent approximately US $ 14,050 million on exchange interventions (MEP, CCL, Future, Crypt and Spot). Of that total, $ 5,300 million came from the FGS to pay judicial sentences and grant ANSES credits, US $ 6,750 million were funds from the IMF and US $ 2,000 million of the repo of early July.
The result is that in the last 35 days the government failed to renew debt in pesos for about $ 15 billion. In their “ideal world”, the authorities expected banks to offer consumer loans with low rates. However, the fees of personal loans today ronde 85% of TNA, which implies a 125% ASD, making them virtually unpayable. Alternatively, they offer UVA credits, whose inflation adjustment generates unpredictable and growing fees, which represents a financial trap for debtors since its creation in 2016.
Last Wednesday, the president of the BCRA surprised to reinstate the paid passes that he had discarded in April. This time, with a 47% TNA in installments of 15, 45 and 60 days, which implies a ASD of 57.6% and monthly effective rates of between 2.4% and 7%, seeking to revitalize the famous “Carry Trade”. But it did not even absorb 10% of the extended monetary base that was released in the last month and a half as a result of the massive monetary broadcast since January.
This already impacts prices: in the last two weeks, many products lists reflect increases from 5 to 7%, driven by the dollar rise. As the Minister of Economy ironized, “the dollar is cheap, do not miss it, champion, buy.” And he was right: the dollar rose between $ 120 and $ 140 in the last month, a jump close to 10%.
On the other hand, this week the government met with the link table, whose leaders again claimed the elimination of withholdings, as they had committed before assuming. But once again, the Executive postponed any concrete definition. In other words, the “Bag”, as they say in the neighborhood, and the discomfort in the countryside begins to be palpable.
Nor are the industrial sectors satisfied. Paolo Rocca, Techint leader, warned that “you cannot continue like this” and convened an next international meeting in Argentina with SMEs and protectionist referents, to discuss the negative effects of the current economic policy on the productive apparatus. It gives the impression that this government the real sector of the economy cares little.
