Will everything be marching according to the plan? Will Javier Milei have elucidated an economy that returns to the recession, with upward unemployment, stagnant inflation and where most Argentines have plenty of month for the end of salary?
Will the Government of the anxiety that reigned in the economic world be aware on Friday, when the bonds were negotiated at default prices, discounting that they would be unable to cover the maturities next year? How many more days could endure reservations to defend the band’s roof? Is the superb of disguising “Toto Masterclass” a true drowned swing when the bad praxis became so evident?
What led to the United States government to such support for Milei? What will they ask for in return? Everything indicates that Trump is in the sights Argentine natural resources such as lithium or rare earths. Far from any conspiracy theory, who warned of this were first the general command of the South Command and then the current ambassador, Peter Lamelas.
What weight does Milei have the only president of the extreme right in Latin America, a strategic region in the dispute with China? How will the Asian giant (and main commercial partner outside Mercosur) react to alignment without conditions that are expected after Besent’s statements?
Another central question is how the economic program continues – if there were – after this week’s ads, if it will hold the balance (once a fiscal surplus) as the only axis of the government.
Many discounted news on the exchange plane: will it have allowed to waste fresh dollars to sustain an exchange rate that unbalanced the commercial balance and attempts against precarious national productive framework? Will they still buy reservations for the momentary departure of the ghost of the default? Will they have learned in the economic team with which pesos could the run come?
The traumatic memories of the above crises were present in recent weeks. From Casa Rosada they consider that the peculiarity of this experience is popular support for the “greatest adjustment in history”, something that was denied in the Buenos Aires election and in mass mobilizations in favor of public education and health. The question that the different political and economic actors are asked is the same: what if this time is not so different?
*Guido Lapa is an UBA economist and teacher
By Guido Lapa
