Lots of downgrades at Celtic & Rangers
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After the 16th matchday, Heart of Midlothian FC with goalkeeper Alexander Schwolow is still surprisingly at the top of the Premiership. This is also reflected in the market value update in Scotland’s elite league, in which two of the four top winners come from the Edinburgh club. However, the Glasgow clubs Celtic and Rangers, who have dominated everything for decades, did not have a perfect start to the season, both of which have already changed their coaches.
Russell Martin was sacked after a disastrous start for Rangers and replaced by German Danny Röhl, while Brendan Rodgers resigned at Celtic. The four-time champion coach was followed by Wilfried Nancy. The Hearts have used this weakness impressively so far, which led to the biggest increase in squad value in this update. The value of the leader increases by 2.2 million euros.
“Despite significant investment from Brighton owner Tony Bloom and access to his renowned data analytics firm, Hearts’ rise to the top of the table is still incredible. Few would have predicted they would be top of the table in December and their signings – supported by Bloom’s Jamestown Analytics – have been exceptional,” emphasizes Euan Robertson, Content Manager at Transfermarkt UK.
Market value update Premiership: Kyziridis top winner – minus for Schwolow
The biggest winner of the update is Hearts left winger Alexandros Kyziridis, whose market value increases by 1.2 million to 2 million euros after ten goals in 19 games. The 25-year-old arrived on a free transfer in the summer from the Slovakian club Michalovce, where his market value was still 375,000 euros. His partner in attack, Cláudio Braga, will also receive a seven-figure plus, going from 1.5 million to 2.5 million euros.
“Hearts’ recruitment system has discovered two gems in Kyziridis and Braga. The two are arguably the best signings in the league this season and have contributed significantly to the club’s success,” says Robertson: “Kyziridis and Braga have recorded 24 goal involvements between them. If they continue like this, their market values will continue to rise and Hearts could make significant transfer profits with them in the future.”
On the other hand, keeper Schwolow has a small minus. The 33-year-old drops by 50,000 to 450,000 euros. “Schwolow is an excellent reinforcement for Hearts and his slight demotion is simply due to his age,” Robertson explains the ex-Unioner’s minus and continues: “The German goalkeeper made an immediate impression in Scotland and is the undisputed number one in Tynecastle – even ahead of the legendary Craig Gordon, who could be in goal for Scotland at the World Cup. Schwolow has kept an impressive six clean sheets in twelve games – he only conceded seven goals – and is a key part of Hearts’ current success. To put that into context, no other club apart from Celtic and Rangers has won the league title for 40 years.”
Celtic and Rangers are the 14 biggest market value losers
Despite the start of the season, there are also market value winners in the ranks of Celtic and Rangers. Liam Scales and Djeidi Gassama increase by one million euros to 5 million and 4 million euros respectively. Nevertheless, Robertson emphasizes: “Celtic and Rangers have had a miserable season so far and only a handful of their players have impressed, while overall there is a widespread devaluation.” These add up to -6.2 million euros for Celtic and even -10.4 million euros for Rangers.
The 14 biggest losers all come from the two Glasgow clubs. The most significant redline is applied to Youssef Chermiti and Nasser Djiga, who each lost 2 million and are now valued at 6 million euros. “After being taken over by a US consortium, the Rangers invested 26.7 million euros in new players in the summer. Chermiti became the third most expensive signing in the club’s history, but is struggling with just one goal in 16 appearances. Central defender Djiga came on a season-long loan from the Premier League’s Wolves, but has mostly shown poor performances,” said Robertson. In addition, some of Celtic’s star players such as Daizen Maeda (-1 to 14) and Reo Hatate (-1 to 12) cannot repeat their performances from previous seasons.
Rangers left winger Mikey Moore remains the most valuable player in the Premiership with an unchanged €16 million. Robertson explains: “The 18-year-old has not particularly stood out since his loan move from Tottenham to Rangers, but has shown signs of his undeniable ability in recent games. The reason for Moore’s high rating is that he is considered an exceptional talent at Spurs and there would be a large market for him if he were available.” Ex-Augsburg player Arne Engels, who is one of the top 10 most valuable players in Scotland’s first league with another 10 million euros, also maintains his valuation.
This is how transfer market market values work
The transfer market market values are created taking into account various pricing models as well as a strong involvement of the transfer market community, which deals with the values in detailed discussions. The transfer market market values cannot generally be equated with the transfer fees actually paid.
The goal is not to predict a price, but rather an expected value. When determining the market value, both individual transfer modalities and situational conditions are relevant to a certain extent. Examples of this are listed here. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (for detailed market value definition).