Update Series A
Around four months after the end of last season in Brazil’s Série A – and the last market value update – Transfermarkt.br has updated a total of 584 player values ahead of the start of the 2022 championship round. In the meantime, the teams have by no means been idle: FIFA Club World Cup, Recopa Sudamericana, Supercopa, State Championship, there is plenty to analyze. Marcos Watts, Area Manager Transfermarkt Brazil says: “Many players have developed well, have grown, but the biggest highlight of this update is Palmeiras.”
The team from São Paulo was one of the great dominators in South American football and is becoming increasingly successful in the country and on the continent. “A reflection of the great talent that comes from their own youth teams,” says Watts, “combined with good investments in the structure of the club and in the squad”. Highlight of this development for the TM expert: Danilo (20) from defensive midfield – “no wonder he was named the third best player at the FIFA Club World Cup after Chelsea’s Thiago Silva and team-mate Dudu.” Danilo’s market value increases by 4 million euros to now 22 million euros, the second highest figure in the league.
Danilo follows Barbosa: Most valuable players in Brazil
In addition to Danilo, other positive and negative examples emerged at Palmeiras: “Raphael Veiga (+2 million to 12 million euros) continued to show a very high level of football at the Club World Cup and the state championship, as did young professional Giovani ( +4m to €10m), which has become increasingly important for the team and has shown that he is ready to shine at a professional level.” The youngsters Gabriel Menino (-4m to €11m) and Patrick de Paula (-2 to €14m, sold to Botafogo) have attracted negative attention since late last year, according to Watts, “when they struggled with disciplinary issues and lost their place in the team. Both were even dropped from the Club World Cup squad a few days before the tournament.”
Market values Brazil: Devaluation for Veron – Pedro satisfied with bank position?
The 19-year-old Gabriel Veron – notable above all because of his age – had to accept a significant devaluation. “He’s had little playing time since last year and has been less important to the team than other young players who have come up after him,” Watts said. New market value of Veron after a minus of 3 million euros: only 12 million euros. Last year, the winger was valued at 25 million euros.
Outside of Palmeiras, the biggest positive outliers for Watts were Fluminense’s Luiz Henrique (+€7m to €12m, sold to Real Betis for €12.6m), Flamengo’s João Gomes (+4m to €9m . euros) and Guilherme Arana from Atlético Mineiro (+3 million to 14 million euros). “Everyone played at a high level and justified higher values - Arana is even fighting for the starting left-back position in the Brazilian national team at the moment.”
São Paulo FC defensive midfielder Pablo Maia received his first ever market cap. Considerable 5 million euros are estimated for the 20-year-old. “The talent made it into a key first-team player in just three months after rising from youth ranks,” explains Watts.
On the other hand, the development of the once praised young hope Pedro von Flamengo was completely different. “Although very talented, the player seems content with Flamengo’s bench as the team have star Gabriel Barbosa in the starting XI,” said Watts, now 24, who is down another £4m , Euro is only valued at 10 million Euro. That’s €8 million less than when he was at his best, just before moving to Florence. “There have been attempts by other clubs to sign him,” Watts admits, “but Flamengo are adamant not to sell the player again and they don’t seem too bothered by that.”
This is how the Transfermarkt market values work
The Transfermarkt market values are created taking into account various pricing models and a strong involvement of the Transfermarkt community, which deals with the values in detailed discussions. The transfer market market values are not to be equated with the transfer fees actually paid.
The goal is not to predict a price, but an expected value. When determining the market value, both individual transfer modalities and situational framework conditions are relevant to a certain extent. Examples of this are listed here. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (for detailed market value definition).
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