For 2025, Banque Syz has identified ten potential surprises that could impact markets. One scenario is about inflation in the EU.
• Banque Syz reveals ten potential market surprises for 2025
• Surprise: Inflation in Europe close to zero
• Return of negative interest rates in Switzerland
According to the Swiss private bank Banque Syz, the new year 2025 is likely to be good because, in addition to a robust global economy, strong profits at S&P 500 companies and lower real interest rates in industrialized countries, the Swiss private bank also expects some very surprising and potential developments that will also impact the markets could clearly influence next year. However, their occurrence is sometimes more, sometimes less likely.
2025 could be marked by political crises in France and Germany, ultimately leading to “paralysis and a sharp economic downturn,” says one of Banque Syz’s ten market surprises.
EU inflation reaches zero
In this context, inflation in Europe is likely to approach zero, predict the experts at the Swiss private bank. As a result, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to push interest rates well below their neutral level, after which it is likely to eventually introduce a quantitative easing program. With these measures, the ECB would prevent increasing economic fragmentation, which is exacerbated by political tensions in France and Germany, for example, according to the Banque Syz report.
Negative interest rates are returning to Switzerland
In addition to these developments, Switzerland is also likely to attract attention, as can be seen from the potential market surprises from Banque Syz. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) could surprise by reintroducing negative interest rates. The reason for this step could be the overvaluation of the Swiss franc, which the SNB wants to counteract. Meanwhile, inflation remains below the target value. Despite the measures, the euro could eventually fall back to 85 cents against the Swiss franc, the bank warns.
Editorial team finanzen.net
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