The Shift from “Special Operation” to “Real War”: Implications for Russia and Ukraine
For years, the term “war” related to Ukraine was criminalized in Russia. Recently, however, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov referred to the ongoing conflict as a “real war,” marking a significant shift in terminology and potentially bearing serious consequences.
Acknowledgment of Reality
Peskov’s declaration that the “special military operation” has escalated due to Western support for Ukraine acknowledges what many have understood since February 2022: Russia is conducting a full-scale invasion. Until recently, using the word “war” in Russia could lead to severe penalties, including criminal charges for “discrediting the armed forces.” This language shift raises questions about the Kremlin’s strategy and intentions moving forward.
Propaganda and Public Perception
Analysts interpret Peskov’s choice of words as a deliberate adjustment in the Kremlin’s propaganda narrative. After more than two years of heavy losses and increasing economic strain, the Russian government appears to be preparing its citizens for a prolonged conflict. This language could also serve as a justification for further partial mobilization within Russia, potentially escalating military efforts.
Legal Consequences of Labeling the Conflict
The change from “special operation” to “war” is not merely semantic; it carries legal ramifications. As analyzed by the BBC in 2022, avoiding an official declaration of war allowed the Kremlin to circumvent certain legal obligations. A formal war declaration under Russian mobilization laws would enable the state to implement nationwide conscription and convert the economy to a war footing. Previously, the “special operation” label provided a buffer against these formal pressures, shielding the government from widespread societal dissent regarding total mobilization.
The Perception of Endless Warfare
According to researchers from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, the Kremlin has utilized the term “special operation” to obscure the war’s reality while gradually acclimating Russian society to a sustained military presence. Political analyst Andrei Kolesnikov argued that efforts have been underway to transform the “special operation” narrative into a “people’s war,” aiming to unify the nation in support of the conflict.
Ukraine’s Strategic Counterattacks
Despite escalating rhetoric in Moscow, Ukraine has continued its strategic military operations. Ukrainian forces have targeted Russian military assets in the occupied Crimea, aiming to disrupt supply lines for Russian troops in Eastern Ukraine. Moreover, attacks on Russian oil refineries are intended to deplete financial resources fueling the conflict. Ukraine maintains that its strikes are aimed at industry and infrastructure, in contrast to Russian assaults on civilian targets.
Stalled Negotiations Amid Hostilities
Amidst these military actions, both nations’ leaders recently engaged in discussions with former U.S. President Donald Trump. Following these conversations, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hinted at new possibilities for peace talks. However, whether this will translate into tangible negotiations remains uncertain, especially given the ongoing hostilities and diverging interests of both countries.
Conclusion
The Kremlin’s acceptance of the term “real war” not only transforms the narrative but also establishes a new groundwork for military engagement and societal expectation in Russia. As the conflict continues to evolve, both domestic and international observers will be closely monitoring the implications of this semantic shift. The evolving nature of warfare, political maneuvers, and international relations in the context of Ukraine will undoubtedly be pivotal in the days ahead.
