Up to $2 trillion valuation, almost five billion loss: SpaceX comes to the NASDAQ. The calculation only works if Musk wins several bets at the same time.
• SpaceX IPO in the starting blocks
• Starlink remains the central sales and earnings driver
• Musk retains control of the company despite going public
On June 12, 2026, SpaceX will enter the NASDAQ under the symbol SPCX, and the benchmark that this IPO sets is hard to beat: With a targeted valuation of up to two trillion US dollars, the company would be one of the ten largest listed companies in the world from the first day of trading. The issuance volume of more than $70 billion more than doubles Saudi Aramco’s previous record from 2019. The roadshow has already started as planned on June 4, 2026 – the train towards the mega IPO is rolling. The shares are issued for $135.
What SpaceX really deserves today
The company’s financial foundation rests on a single pillar: Starlink, the satellite internet network with more than ten million users in over 160 countries, contributed around $11.4 billion to total sales of $18.67 billion in 2025, or around 61 percent, and was the only division with an operating profit. The group as a whole still ended the year with a net loss of $4.94 billion and an operating loss of $2.59 billion because the xAI segment alone made an operating loss of around $6.4 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, the group’s sales growth slowed to 15 percent and the operating loss widened to $ 1.9 billion. Starlink makes money, but it’s not nearly enough to cover expenses elsewhere.
The xAI bet at the center of the review
This is exactly where the real core of the valuation thesis lies. In February 2026, SpaceX took over xAI, and at the beginning of May 2026, Musk announced the dissolution of xAI as an independent company: Grok and the X network have since been integrated into the group under the SpaceXAI division. Since then, the picture has become even clearer: On quarterly revenue of $818 million, the AI segment posted an operating loss of $2.47 billion in the first quarter of 2026, and 76 percent of the quarter’s total capital expenditures went to this area. Anyone who buys SPCX also buys these losses. But there is initial external evidence that the model can be sustainable: Anthropic pays $1.25 billion per month for access to the Colossus data centers, a contract with a maximum term until May 2029, which both sides can terminate with 90 days’ notice. Musk himself described it as a 180-day lease. If the contract holds, it will significantly support AI revenues from the second half of 2026.
Musk is in control, investors are not
Anyone who buys the share should be clear about one thing: it does not give them any influence on company decisions. The dual-class structure gives Musk’s Class B shares ten votes per share, while Class A shareholders only hold one vote. The result is that, with an economic stake of around 42 percent, Musk controls 85 percent of the combined voting rights, and no other shareholder even has five percent. The S-1 document specifically identifies Musk’s parallel leadership roles at Tesla, X, xAI, Boring Company and Neuralink as a risk factor, as well as conflicts of interest and reputational risks. The prospectus shows a provision of $530 million for likely legal risks for the entire group, most of which relates to the xAI segment: This includes an Irish data protection investigation into Grok’s handling of European children’s data as well as investigations into non-consensual sexualized images that the chatbot is said to have generated. After all: Musk himself does not sell any of his own shares in the IPO.
Four mechanisms that private investors should know
Aside from the valuation debate, there are four structural peculiarities that rarely appear in public discussion but are directly relevant for investors.
On the one hand, there is the retail allocation: According to media reports, SpaceX plans to make around 30 percent of the issue volume available to private investors via broker platforms, three times as much as in a typical large IPO. A directed share program of up to 5 percent for employees and selected persons has so far been confirmed in the S-1. If the 30 percent becomes reality, that would be around $22.5 billion with an issue volume of $75 billion, but demand is likely to far exceed supply. What this means in practice: Anyone who applies for shares via a broker platform may only receive a fraction of the desired amount, or in some cases nothing at all.
There are also details about the free float: SpaceX is expected to only put around three to four percent of the total shares into free trading, an unusually low value for a company of this size. Morningstar analyst Franco Granda estimates that this fact alone can trigger price swings of 20 to 30 percent in the first few days of trading, compared to typical Tesla swings of 10 to 15 percent for comparable triggers.
And the issue of index inclusion is also special for SpaceX: The NASDAQ has relaxed the rules for newly listed large companies and allows inclusion in the NASDAQ-100 just five trading days after the IPO. Since SpaceX would be one of the heaviest stocks in the index at a valuation of two trillion dollars, index funds are forced to buy the stock within a few days. This could artificially drive up the price immediately after the listing before there is sufficient liquidity in the market.
In addition, details about the lock-up are surprising: Unlike traditional IPOs, where all insiders are allowed to sell at the same time after 180 days, SpaceX relies on a staggered mechanism. According to the Q2 quarterly report, up to 20 percent of the blocked shares will be released, and a further 10 percent if the share price develops strongly. This is followed by five time-based tranches of 7 percent each at 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days after the IPO, a further 28 percent after the Q3 report and full release after 180 days. Musk himself is exempt from all early release regulations: his shares remain locked for 366 days. The mechanism dampens the classic price pressure after the lock-up ends, but spreads it over several months.
What investors should keep an eye on
The $2 trillion valuation can be roughly divided into two halves: one represents the proven business value of Starlink and the rocket business, the other is an advance on AI applications and in-orbit computing capabilities that have yet to be proven. In addition, Starship, the heavy-lift system for the next generation of Starlink satellites, is expected to carry the first V3 satellites from the second half of 2026, according to S-1, while full commercial scaling with V2 mobile satellites is not expected until 2027. Delays would directly impact revenue forecasts because neither V3 nor V2 mobile satellites can be launched with Falcon 9.
The actual stress test for the valuation thesis comes with the quarterly figures for the second quarter of 2026: Then it becomes clear for the first time whether the AI segment will measurably turn into profit as a result of the Anthropic contract, or whether Starlink will continue to have to shoulder the losses of the entire group alone.
Claudia Stephan, editorial team at finanzen.net
This text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. finanzen.net GmbH excludes any claims for recourse.
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