Recent developments in Iran, particularly the recent framework agreement between Iran and the USA, have left many citizens in disbelief. Despite signing a roadmap for the upcoming two months, the Iranian regime remains entrenched in power, negotiating from a position of strength while simultaneously cracking down on dissent. The rising number of executions and persecution of regime critics paint a grim picture of the current human rights situation.
The Disbelief Among Iranians
According to author Navid Kermani, a prominent figure with Iranian roots, astonishment is the prevailing sentiment among Iranians who criticize the regime. In an interview with Bavarian Radio, Kermani reflects on the absurdity of the situation, where many Iranians cannot believe the turn of events. Jokes and cartoons circulating in the country depict U.S. President Trump and the regime as allies, underscoring the public’s confusion.
Kermani’s laughter, tinged with sarcasm, reveals his own struggle to comprehend how the Tehran regime seems more secure post-war than before. He attributes this phenomenon to the trajectory of the U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran, suggesting that America has inadvertently rescued the regime on two occasions: the first was in 2003 during the Iraq War, which allowed Iran to strengthen its regional power.
War as a Lifeline for the Regime
The current conflict involving Israel and the U.S. has similarly revived the regime’s stability. Kermani points out that Trump failed to fulfill his promise to Iranian protesters, who were encouraged to continue their demonstrations. The regime has responded ruthlessly, leading to countless deaths among those resisting the Mullahs. While some key figures, like Ayatollah Khamenei, have been targeted, the hardliners remain firmly in control.
Kermani anticipated that the war would be a “fiasco.” He remained opposed to it from the start, contrasting with many Iranians who hoped the bombings might bring about the regime’s end, now mostly criticizing the lack of follow-through.
Europe’s Disgraceful Role
The 2015 Peace Prize winner questions the absence of remorse among politicians who initially supported the war. He highlights Europe’s failure to leverage its economic influence and prestige, arguing that the EU lacks a coherent foreign policy regarding Iran. Kermani’s analysis suggests that the international community’s inaction has exacerbated the situation.
A “Desperate Hope” for Change
Despite the bitterness evident in Kermani’s observations, he clings to a fragile hope for the future. He firmly believes that the Iranian populace will continue to express their dissatisfaction, even amid prevailing resignation. Moderate Iranians, with whom he communicates, assure him that the regime cannot maintain its violent grip indefinitely. Kermani acknowledges that this perspective may be a “desperate hope,” yet it resonates with the resilience seen among the Iranian people.
