Juve without the Champions League, the market from Allegri to Vlahovic-Chiesa and beyond

Without the Champions League, Juve will have a negative effect on revenues of around 120 million euros next season. The -10 in the standings for the capital gains case and the subsequent plea bargaining in the trial on salary maneuvers would still give margin – albeit minimal – to hope for qualification for the next Europa League (but 90 minutes from the end of the championship it will not depend only on the result of the black and whites, late on Roma and Atalanta) and the most concrete possibility of accessing the Conference: but neither of the two competitions will be able to withstand the impact of the losses caused by the exit from the most important cup. It being understood that UEFA will also have to express itself on any penalties and the exclusion of the bianconeri from European events for one season is a real risk.

ASSESSMENTS ON THE TECHNICIAN

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Costs will need to be cut rationally, to allow the team’s successful ambitions to be kept alive and to give continuity to the work done this last season on young players, who are now more central to the technical project than last summer. The first macro item to take into consideration, even before evaluating the squad, is related to the coach: Juve carefully evaluates Allegri’s position because they cannot afford to make a mistake. The coach’s second Juventus parenthesis is disappointing but there is a super contract that binds him to the club until 2025: an exemption would cost around 40 million, and for the heir there would be not the slightest room for mistakes, after two years of vacuum . Everything would change in the event of contract termination (which would still have a high cost, due to the distant end of the contract) or, better still, with Max’s transfer to another bench. At that point the club could reduce the costs of the coach and the staff, recalibrating downwards.

GREETINGS

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The second determining macro-item is that of emoluments. In reality, Juve has been managing the negotiations for contract renewals downwards for a couple of years and, since last summer, with the inclusion of some Next Gen youngsters in the squad, they have managed to lower the wage bill. The management remains intact and will become more evident with the already planned exits of Paredes (7 million), Rabiot (7), Di Maria (6) and Cuadrado (5). Net of a dialogue still open with the last one (but with a reduced salary), the others will most likely be replaced by young people who will have a much lower impact on seasonal costs, at least in the short term. It might not be enough, though. So it cannot be ruled out that some strategic extensions will be attempted with players close to expiring but who can be part of the club’s plans for a long time, trying to lower the fixed annual fee in exchange for a few more years as a guarantee. It will then be necessary to sort out the players who will return from loans and are not included in the technical plans: Arthur, McKennie, Zakaria and perhaps Kulusevski.

ON SALE

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Considering that the players’ salaries at the end of the contract will lead to savings of around 50 million, it becomes inevitable to think about some heavy transfers. The main candidates for a sale seem to be Vlahovic or Chiesa: both popular on the foreign market but with different potential benefits for Juventus’ needs. In fact, the Serbian centre-forward still weighs heavily on the balance sheet: selling him immediately, after not having shone, would mean recovering the investment made as much as possible. The blue champion of Europe, on the other hand, could attract less rich offers but the sum would be collected almost entirely: the contract expiring in 2025 forces the black and whites to make a choice, or lock him down with an important extension to be able to make him the star of the new cycle or sacrifice him for a reasonable amount, perhaps useful for keeping Vlahovic as well who could increase his market value in the future. Iling has the same situation as Chiesa: and several English clubs that have already targeted him.

NECESSARY ASSESSMENTS

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Given that the big European clubs could find in Juventus’ current situation opportunities to market (players potentially attracted by a more prestigious season and a club ready to listen to offers to lower costs) it becomes necessary to make assessments on those players who in recent years have been considered luxury reserves, whose presence in the squad has come in handy to manage a longer calendar. Juve currently have two starting goalkeepers: Szczesny and Perin, with the second costing five times less than the first, potentially leaving even if he still has another year on his contract plus a renewal option until 2025. Rugani has a heavy engagement for half of Serie A, but he has never lacked offers from abroad. And keep an eye on players like Kostic or Bremer, who joined Juventus last summer and are untouchable for now, barring monstrous offers. A solution would also be needed for Pogba: disproportionate engagement for the new guidelines and season to be forgotten also due to his responsibility.