The radical right-wing, populist Brothers of Italy gained no less than 26 percent in the Italian parliamentary election on Sunday. But there will be no big victory party or a triumphant press conference. President Giorgia Meloni has urged her party members to be serious and austere. The situation in the country is serious, and the new government yet to be formed has a Herculean task ahead of it. A solution to the sky-high energy prices that hit Italian families and businesses hard is urgent. The new cabinet must also draw up the budget quickly.
The new government will have to wait a while, because the formation negotiations will only start after the new Italian parliament has had its opening session on 13 October. But with such a clear election result – the right-wing electoral alliance won a clear majority in parliament – it is obvious that President Sergio Mattarella will soon leave the initiative for government formation to Meloni.
Second tranche of 21 billion euros
Europe and the international markets are especially looking forward to who will be appointed in Economics and Finance. Italy is the third largest economy in the eurozone, but at the same time it is a debt-laden country and, with more than 200 billion euros in the coming years, the main beneficiary of the European corona recovery fund Next Generation EU. On Tuesday, the European Commission said Italy has been given the green light for a second tranche of €21 billion, after the requested targets have been achieved.
There are signs that the new government team is striving for continuity
The Italian economy desperately needs the European billions in the coming years. Meloni seems to be well aware of that. According to the Italian media, she is considering a former top executive of the Italian national bank for the important post of Finance. That is a contrast to four years ago. After the last election, the radical right-wing Lega party in particular insisted that Paolo Savona, a euro-critical economist who described the euro as “a German cage”, became finance minister. Head of state Sergio Mattarella then blocked Savona’s nomination.
There are signs that the new Italian government team is striving for continuity. Meloni’s transition team is briefed on the financial-economic situation in the country by Draghi’s staff, and would also ask for some ideas for the budget. By October 15, the European Commission expects a draft budget from Rome, which is likely to be submitted by the Draghi government. After that, the new Italian government will have the opportunity to update that budget.
It must all radiate seriousness and a sense of responsibility and, in addition to Europe, certainly also reassure the international financial markets. For now, that strategy is working. The international rating agency S&P does not immediately foresee a risk in the transition to a new Italian government, it said shortly after the poll.
Avoid confrontation in Europe
Meloni also seems to want to avoid confrontation with Europe in other important ministerial posts for the time being. Matteo Salvini of the Lega party may give up his dream of becoming Minister of the Interior again. Salvini closed Italy’s borders to NGO boats, and his immigration policies put him on a collision course with the European Union. On Sunday, Salvini’s Lega did not reach 9 percent. Electorally, he weighs too light for such an important ministerial post.
Finally, Silvio Berlusconi, the second coalition partner that Meloni needs for her majority, does not seem to have to count on a highly visible international role. He is too controversial for that, especially outside Italy. Meloni would consider Berlusconi’s party colleague Antonio Tajani, possibly as chairman of one of the two chambers of parliament. Tajani likes to see himself at Foreign Affairs. The former President of the European Parliament is moderate and pro-European. That would immediately reassure Europe that Italy is not breaking European solidarity on the sanctions against Moscow.