It is pent-up anger about the state of the Iranian economy that is now being expressed in the current mass protests. Both historian and Iran expert Peyman Jafari (49) and theater maker and university lecturer Hossein Lale (63) are convinced of this.
Iranians began to express their dissatisfaction when the US dollar rose sharply in value last Sunday and the Iranian rial plummeted. Initially, the demonstrations of hundreds of Iranians only took place in the capital Tehran, but demonstrations in other Iranian cities soon followed this week. It is now the largest wave of protests since the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, after which the large-scale ‘Woman Life Freedom’ uprising broke out.
The actions of the regime are striking. This is – for the time being – less harsh on the demonstrators and also shows understanding for the reasons for the protests. This is what the Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said social media know that he has instructed his Minister of the Interior to listen to the “legitimate concerns” of the demonstrators.
“If we go to work in the morning, we are poorer at the end of the day,” says Roya Khoshnevis (43) on the phone from Tehran. She lived in the Netherlands for a long time, but returned four years ago as a researcher in petrocultural studies, and she is affiliated with the Center for Strategic Middle Eastern Studies in Tehran. “I’m still doing well for now, but if the economy continues to falter like this, I will feel forced to leave.”
They were shopkeepers and market traders who closed their businesses and took to the streets out of dissatisfaction with the deteriorating economic situation. Extreme inflation has pushed prices up sharply, and they also fluctuate daily. Shopkeepers saw their profits evaporate and the population found it increasingly difficult to make ends meet.
“Meat, for example, has become a luxury product,” says Lale by telephone from Tehran. He sees that many people avoid meat, “because they can no longer afford it.” He also has to make do with a small grant as a university lecturer and theater maker, but he can still manage.
More and more people are joining
For the time being, the government is seeking dialogue. And unlike previous times: the security services have not yet intervened, at least to a much less violent extent than in previous large-scale protests. In 2019, for example, it was estimated that more than 1,500 people were killed during demonstrations due to the crackdown.
In the coming days, the actions of the security services – for example by shutting down the internet – will be very decisive, according to Jafari. “When the security service intervenes, you will see that the reactions [van burgers] will become more violent.” Jafari thinks that the government is now reacting more mildly because it concerns other demonstrators. The shopkeepers in the bazaars are more traditional and often are (or have been) supporters of the regime. “The shopkeepers are a bit more conservative,” says the historian on the phone.
Jafari sees the protests becoming “more political” and that is why more and more people are joining. “People wonder how inflation is so extreme. Is it corruption? Mismanagement? Politics?” Whether this could lead to a fall of the regime, “you have to be careful,” he says. A lot depends, says Jafari, on how the protests will develop and whether they will spread to larger cities and to all provinces. “At the same time, the government cannot ignore these protests because this anger is just the tip of the iceberg.”
US sanctions
The United States has imposed tough economic sanctions on Iran for decades over its nuclear program. Although the country maintains to this day that this is for purely peaceful purposes, the Americans and their allies fear that Tehran is actually producing nuclear weapons.
“The sanctions are the stranglehold that is causing the Iranian economy to implode,” says historian Jafari. And Lale and Khoshnevis also blame the major economic problems in Iran, mainly on sanctions.
“Iran is dependent on one export product, oil, and that is now covered by sanctions,” Khoshnevis said. She thinks that the government cannot solve the problem as long as the sanctions are so severe. And it is the Iranian people who are paying the price. “That will be hit the hardest.”
Protesters on December 31 attack a government building in southern Iran
Photo AFP
The fact that the American president is now interfering does not work in the demonstrators’ favor. Donald Trump threatened to come to their rescue. On Truth Social he wrote: “We are completely ready.” It was not clear for what exactly, but the attacks by the American air force on Iranian nuclear installations in the summer of 2025 once again show that Trump does not shy away from violence.
According to Jafari, the Iranian government will use Trump’s words against the demonstrators and rally its own supporters because this is proof of foreign interference. “Many people live in fear of the shadow of war. Foreign interference in the past has also shown that everything will only get worse.”
Is there a leader?
The success of this current wave of protests also depends on whether leaders will emerge. The bazaris and day laborers are still the largest group demonstrating, but they are not really organized. According to Jafari, the middle class, which still has something to lose, is therefore waiting to see how the protests will proceed and what the government’s response will be. “They are also furious, but they will want to know whether it can be said with more certainty which way the protest is going. That is why the demonstrators now number in the thousands and not in the hundreds of thousands.”
What the government will do depends on how massive the protests will become and whether they will be well organized. Jafari expects that the government will continue to seek dialogue for the time being and will promise to postpone the announced VAT increases and income taxes for a while. “But these are really short-term solutions that ultimately do not make much difference.”
Lale also does not think that these protests will topple the regime. In the city of Tabriz, where he comes from, he does not yet see people taking to the streets. “What the protests lack is a leader who connects different factions. As a result, protests come in waves.”
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