Paul De Grauwe is a professor at the London School of Economics. Zijn column changes tweewekelijks.
De Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) quoted in current papers. Terwijl other large central banks, the American Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, your rentevoeten al are verleden jaar sterk aan het optrekken zijn om de inflatie te bestrijden, heeft de ECB lang geaarzeld. The first rent is planned for the end of this month. Het wordt a meager 0.25 percent rent testing.
Why is the ECB so long? On the level of inflation there is no obligation. It is even higher in the euro zone (8.6 percent) than in the US (8.6 percent) and the United Kingdom (9 percent).
The announcement of the ECB is surprising because the three central banks of the ECB have the strongest anti-inflation mandate. The statutes of the ECB are explicitly stated: the most important object of the central bank is the nature of the price stability; other objects (waaronder groei en workloosheid) zijn ondergeschikt aan de primauteit van prijsstabiliteit. That is not the case in the US, while the Federal Reserve considered inflation in economic large individual cases. In addition to this, the American Federal Reserve has issued a statement that has been taken in the first line of inflation, not in the ECB.
A possible declaration is that the ECB de inflated three times a long time. During the last year, the inflation forecast for the ECB will be completed or the inflation will be realized. In other words, the ECB has the following inflation rates: about 2 percent. The army will not evaluate that de ECB on gelijk heeft. In the huidige conjunctuur zijn inflatievoorspellingen buitengewoon moeilijk. Het is not carried out that the ECB gelijk zal krijgen. Het merkwaardige is wel dat de ECB other Voorspellingen maakt dan de other central banks. There is another problem here that the optimistic inflation rates should be covered.
Central banks have been confronted with a dilemma. The higher energy prices, the same as the handling problems of basic materials and other essential components, raise an additional risk in the inflation. The central banks can inflate the right to rent. The last has a negatief effect op de vraag naar goederen en diensten and zullen dus de economic activiteit negatief beïnvloeden. When the rent test started, it was possible to have a recession.
The central banks state that there is a dilemma. As ze de inflation will break, ze de rentevoeten voldoende doen stijgen. Maar daarmee risken ze een recessie uit te lokken. When you want to avoid a recession, you should make sure that you meet the rent test because there is a risk that the inflation will remain in the economy. A moeilijke keuze dus. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are leaning in the right direction.”killing the inflation beast”. The ECB will not make the cross beforehand.
The intention of the ECB was to meet one of two dilemmas that Europe’s Central Bank had to face and that was the result of other central banks. The ECB is a central bank from a single city of 19 countries with 19 regeringen, the elk a divorce dragen van erguiteenlopende ontwikkelingen in budgettaire tekkorten and overheating debt. When the ECB de-retires, then there is a slight impact on long-term rents in the country. Landing with a verleten van high tekkorten and high overheating guilt zien bij elke rentestijging de rente op hun guilt meer dan proportioneel toenemen; Landen met a more favorable verleden zien de pension op hun guilt veel less stijgen.
An anti-inflation problem from the ECB creates a new dilemma. As the ECB de rentevoet is strictly opted for the inflatie te bestrijden, there is a risk of large budgetary problems when creating the “Zwakke landen”. That can be up until a new debt crisis suffers when the state obligations are covered by the Zwakke Landen massaal gaan verkopen. Het dilemma is dus: inflatie bestrijding of debt crisis. When the ECB te hard de inflatie ruled, there is a risk of a debt crisis; When the ECB een debt crisis will be avoided, the strijd should be subject to inflationary temperaments.
A nice vraagstuk. Predictively the ECB in the districts for which there is a charge for inflation before a debt crisis is avoided. I understand the cross. A debt crisis such as we had in 2010-12 could have been considered as an existential problem in the euro zone. From that you avoid can het zinvol zijn om what sea inflatie te aanvaarden.