Hopes for a diplomatic end to the Iran war remained on the German stock market on Friday, but the situation remains fragile. The DAX can still grow.
The DAX began trading on Friday cautiously at 24,150.47 points, only a minimal 0.02 percent below its previous day’s close, but was able to rise shortly afterwards and is now posting clear profits.
The Strait of Hormuz “will be fully opened to all merchant vessels for the remaining period of the ceasefire,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on Platform X.
“The stock market continues to be surprisingly resilient in the face of the ongoing tensions in the Middle East,” wrote market analyst Timo Emden from Emden Research. After the recent strong fluctuations, the DAX is moving in an overall friendly environment.
This means that the leading German index is heading for a significant weekly increase and the third week of gains in a row. Despite the recovery of more than eight percent since the end of March, the DAX is still around four and a half percent below the level at the end of February, i.e. before the start of the Iran war.
Pakistan is already preparing for further negotiations
According to Emden, investors are betting that the ceasefire between the USA and Iran will last at least for the time being in the Middle East war or that it will even develop into an extended phase of political relaxation, which could lead to a viable peace agreement in the medium term. Pakistan is already preparing for further negotiations between Iran and the United States in the capital Islamabad.
Investor sentiment is improving
There are still no new disruptions from the Iran conflict before the weekend, and so there is still no sign that investors are willing to take profits. “The market wants to rise,” wrote expert Emmanuel Cau from Barclays Bank this morning. The ceasefire has improved investor sentiment and fear of missing out has driven share prices in some US indices to new highs.
However, the expert points out that the war is not yet over and therefore believes that a large portion of hope is priced in. After all, oil prices and bond yields have not yet made up for their recent rise and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains. “Our impression is that the easily achievable price gains are behind us,” believes Cau. In order to continue to rise, the war must actually be ended.
“The situation in the Middle East remains fragile,” wrote Andreas Lipkow, chief market analyst at trading house CMC Markets. “Even if some agreements are now reached through diplomatic channels, we are still a long way from peace.”
Ceasefire between Israel and the Hezbollah militia in force
An official ceasefire between Israel and the Hezbollah militia has been in force in Lebanon since midnight. US President Donald Trump, who announced the agreement on Truth Social, described the day as potentially “historic”. He called on Hezbollah to be cooperative. However, the militia itself is calling for a comprehensive ceasefire without Israeli troop movements and has initially left its long-term position open.
In Tehran, the development is now being seen as a success in its own right. Senior Revolutionary Guard officials emphasized that the steadfastness of the Lebanese resistance made this diplomatic move possible. Iran had repeatedly made the issue of the ceasefire in Lebanon a condition in direct talks with the USA, as the fighting there had put a strain on the negotiations over the Iran war.
New USA-Iran talks already this weekend and an explosive uranium deal?
According to US President Donald Trump, the US could now hold further talks with Iran this weekend. “Maybe at the weekend,” he told reporters when asked about potential negotiations. “We are very close to making a deal,” Trump added.
However, traders are expressing doubts about the alleged progress in peace talks between the US and Iran. “There are only allegations about this from Trump,” says one trader. UBS chief economist Paul Donovan also emphasizes this: Trump claims that a peace deal looks “very good” and that Iran agrees to US conditions without providing any evidence of this.
In addition, according to Axios, the USA is planning an explosive uranium deal: a $20 billion agreement with Iran to exchange cash for uranium.
Pressure on Iran remains high
In parallel to the diplomatic rapprochement, the USA is maintaining military and economic pressure on Tehran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Iran’s leadership that the US military would be ready “at the push of a button” to resume attacks if Iran did not “choose wisely.” There is a particular focus on the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, whose blockade by Iran has driven up global energy prices. While the USA continues to block passage for Iranian ships, Western partners are discussing in Paris a multinational military mission to secure trade routes. At this meeting, Chancellor Friedrich Merz already signaled his willingness to participate Bundeswehr on such a plan.
Claudia Stephan, Carolin Ludwig, Melanie Schürmann, finanzen.net editorial team with material from dpa-AFX and Dow Jones Newswires
