On Thursday, the Huuhkajs have the top match of the group in front of them.
The Huhkaji’s situation in Group H of the European Championship qualifiers looks delicious at first glance.
Four rounds of the qualifiers have been played, and Finland leads its group with a better goal difference than Kazakhstan. Both have nine points.
There’s no reason to celebrate yet. This is perhaps the most even group of the entire qualification phase.
Denmark, who started the qualifying campaign with a cough, and Slovenia, who were left behind at the Olympic Stadium in Helsinki, are on seven points.
In September, Finland will face Kazakhstan away and Denmark at home. In October, there is a guest trip to Slovenia and a home match with Kazakhstan. In November, the qualifiers will first culminate with the home match against Northern Ireland and the away match against San Marino.
After the qualifying window in June, the statistical website Gracenote estimates Finland’s probability of a place in the EC final tournament at 65 percent. Denmark, which is only third in the group, instead received an 81 percent probability.
This article explains what kinds of stakes are played in the fall.
What is the main antagonist?
Denmark’s probability is supported by its pre-favorite position. The national team, which has become a regular visitor to prestigious competitions, is full of star players from Europe’s top leagues.
Before the qualifiers began, Denmark was not even considered Finland’s main opponent, as it was expected to advance to the Games without major difficulties, probably as the group winner.
However, Denmark’s weak performances have affected its position and at the same time the situation in the group. Kazakhstan managed to cut down the jute right in the spring. The Kazakhs have now become Finland’s clear main opponent.
An away win over Kazakhstan would put Finland in an excellent position, even if Denmark doesn’t get any points on Sunday at the Olympic Stadium. After Huuhkajie, Kazakhstan will face Northern Ireland, which Finland hopes to grab at least a point.
Finland is already hoping for the same on Thursday, when Slovenia hosts the Northern Irish. However, it is more likely that Slovenia will grab the full six points from the matches in September.
Match schedule
7.9.
Kazakhstan–Finland
Denmark–San Marino
Slovenia–Northern Ireland
10.9.
Kazakhstan–Northern Ireland
Finland–Denmark
San Marino–Slovenia
–
14.10.
Northern Ireland–San Marino
Slovenia–Finland
Denmark–Kazakhstan
17.10.
Finland–Kazakhstan
Northern Ireland–Slovenia
San Marino–Denmark
–
17.11.
Kazakhstan–San Marino
Finland–Northern Ireland
Denmark–Slovenia
20.11.
Northern Ireland–Denmark
San Marino–Finland
Slovenia–Kazakhstan
A solution in Ljubljana?
In the best case for the Huhkajis, Kazakhstan’s EC dream crumbles already in September or at the latest in the meeting with Denmark that opens the qualifying window in October.
In that case, the match between Slovenia and Finland could become the deciding match for the place in the final tournament.
If Slovenia wins its September match and Huuhkajat collects three points, Slovenia will go to the home game in October with a one-point advantage.
However, Slovenia’s last matches are clearly more difficult than Finland: Northern Ireland away, Denmark away and Kazakhstan at home.
That’s why keeping Slovenia behind would be of utmost importance for Huuhkaj before the last three qualifying matches.
European Championship qualifiers: Kazakhstan–Finland, Thursday at 5 p.m. (Yle TV2)
September’s match against Denmark will also be confirmed on the sold-out Olympic Stadium. Jussi Eskola