News item | 10-07-2025 | 09:06
Housing will rise in the direction of 100,000 homes in 2027 and will be around 90,000 homes per year in the following years. This expectation is apparent from the annual Primos report from ABF Research. Permanent deployment of all parties involved is needed to realize these homes. A point of attention is that a large part of the housing plans until 2030 still have to be licensed. In addition, provinces must make plans to be able to maintain the realization pace of around 100,000 homes per year after 2030.
ABF Research indicates that the expectation may be underestimated because the now withdrawn rental freezing has been included in the expectation. The current granting permits shows that the potential is there to build 100,000 homes. In 2024, 94,000 permits for new construction were granted and another 10,000 for other additions, such as transformations. It takes an average of 2 years for a licensed house has been built and not all permits are realized. 82,000 homes were realized in 2024, a similar number was expected in 2025.
“It is of great importance to ensure stability and continuity in housing,” says Minister Keijzer of Housing and Spatial Planning. “The newly adopted management of the Housing Act will help with this. In addition, all parties involved are working on the living top agreements and I am working on taking away obstructing regulations to speed up housing. In the coming period we will also make it easier to make better use of the existing stock of homes. For example, we can help many tens of home seekers to a house every year.”
Plancing
The planning capacity is 127% nationwide, where 130% have been agreed with local authorities. The planning capacity is 30% higher than what is needed, because plans can be delayed or cannot continue. For the duration of the current residential deals (2025 to 2030), the estimated gross planning capacity is 930,400 homes. The point of care is that a large part of these plans are not yet licensed. This point is high on the agenda in conversations with the residential deal regions.
In the longer term, after 2030, the planning capacity drops. For the period 2025 to 2044, the total gross planning capacity is nearly 1.7 million homes. In addition to updating the residential deals, the designated breakthrough locations and the reduction of obstructing regulations (tough) must lead to sufficient plans for the period after 2030.
Population growth
The housing shortage is still high. In the trend prognosis of ABF, the number of households will increase in the next 15 years by 822 thousand, to almost 9.3 million in 2040. The conclusion is that the population continues to grow and that society becomes older and more diverse. The household increase consists largely of older single people and older couples. This means that there is more demand for (care) homes for the elderly. The number of single households is also increasing. That is currently around 3.4 million. The number of (young) adults living at home has also increased considerably: 60% of the over-18s living at home is looking for a home.