Germany almost certainly needs at least one point in the final group game against Spain to get into the main round.
Because of the 27:30 defeat of the German handball players in the second European Championship preliminary round game against Serbia, the DHB team now actually has to score points in the last group game against Spain and probably even win by at least three goals in order to even reach the main round. With a three-goal win against Spain, the DHB selection is definitely through. The fact that in the most likely case there would only be a very small chance of making it to the semi-finals is due to the last seconds of the Serbia game.
Risk doesn’t pay off – the last goal conceded really hurts
Because with the score at 27:29 and Serbian possession of the ball with twelve seconds left on the clock, national coach Alfred Gislason decided to let his team cover offensively at full risk in order to perhaps steal the ball again and reduce the score to 28:29. Realistically speaking, winning a point was no longer possible and scoring another goal was extremely unlikely (but not impossible). But as is so often the case in such situations, this very offensive defense meant that the Serbs were able to run freely to Andreas Wolff and increase the score to 30:27.
This is fatal because: The Spaniards won their group game against the Serbs with 29:27. Assuming Serbia beats Austria in the final group game and Germany manages to defeat the Spanish, all three teams will have four points. Germany therefore needs a win with at least a three-goal difference against the Iberians in order to leave Spain behind in a three-way comparison from the direct duels, which will decide whether they advance.
If there is a main round, then probably with 0 points
But that’s not all: If this scenario occurs, Germany will advance, but will not take any points into the main round, because in this case Serbia would be the other team that reaches the main round from Group A. Denmark, France, Portugal and Norway will probably be waiting there – Germany would probably have to win all games against these teams in order to get to the semi-finals. If they had only lost by two goals against Serbia, there would still be a scenario in a three-way comparison in which Germany would reach the main round together with Spain and then take two points from that same duel with Spain. With the last goal conceded, that can no longer happen.
What happens if Serbia loses to Austria?
If Serbia loses against Austria, things look different: Then the DHB selection “only” needs one point against Jordi Ribera’s team and would then take this point (or two if they win) into the next round. First special case: If the Austrians win with exactly three goals against Serbia, but score fewer than 30 goals, the DHB selection will continue even if they lose against Spain. Second special case: If the game ends exactly 30:27 for Ösis, Germany can only lose to Spain by one goal. In the event of a draw between Serbia and Austria, Germany would definitely have to win against Spain.
So Germany should keep its fingers crossed for the Austrians – and they have a lot of motivation themselves: If Iker Romero’s team beats Serbia by four goals and Germany loses to Spain, Austria will be in the main round. Serbia and Germany would be out of a three-way comparison.
