Hamas is negotiating with Israel, but more and more of his fighters want to ‘fight until the end’

Hamas is quite prepared to negotiate with Israel. On one condition: as long as it doesn’t work like last time. Then, in March, Israel unilaterally violated the conditions of the ceasefire by resuming its extermination campaign in Gaza. This time Hamas demands a hard warranty from Washington that Israel does not do that again in the next ceasefire.

From Washington? Yes, says analyst Mouin Rabbani: the negotiations about a new cease-fire in Gaza do not actually take place between Israel and Hamas. In practice, it is US President Donald Trump who determines the conditions that both parties must adhere to.

The president is not independent: he is openly on the side of Israel. “But as the most important ally and arms supplier, Trump does have the power to impose on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu binding conditions,” said Rabbani.

Food aid again neutral

In addition to the warranty for an end to the war, Hamas places two hard requirements. The Israeli troops must withdraw to the positions they took in March. And international organizations such as the United Nations must again be in charge of the distribution of relief supplies, instead of the controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.

The negotiations take place in Doha, the capital of Qatar. The representatives of Israel and Hamas do not immediately talk to each other there. Instead, the delegations are in various buildings, while mediators pass on messages between the parties.

According to international media, the contours are ready for an agreement on a ceasefire. We are waiting for the decisive action by Trump and his jack of everything, Steve Witkoff.

But who is Hamas, now that Israel has executed the most leaders of the militant organization in recent years?

In Gaza there is little left of the pre -war leadership of Hamas. At the beginning of last month, Israel invited the international press to come and look at the body of Mohammed Sinwar. This leader of the military branch of Hamas had died in an Israeli air raid on an underground tunnel at a hospital in the city of Khan Younis.

A few months earlier, an Israeli patrol had already killed his brother, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was considered the brain behind the attack of 7 October. To be seen on drone images shared by Israel was a seriously injured man who just managed to throw a stick towards the camera. Also CEO Mohammed Deif – who was also involved in the preparation of 7 October – was killed with Israeli bombing last year.

To date, the killing of Hamas leaders has not brought the end of the war closer by Israel. The new leader in Gaza is said to be Izz al-Din al-Haddad, a survivor from the old guard of the group, who does not differ much from his predecessors in his views. Al-Haddad previously spoke out in an interview with Al-Jazeera about the need for a permanent end to the war and the full withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza.

Pain point

But it is precisely the guarantee of a definitive end to the war that is the pain point in the current negotiations in Doha – just as it was the case during previous stuck interviews. Netanyahu wants to reserve the right to continue the genocidal war. In addition, Israel demands that Hamas is completely disarmed and that the leaders of the organization leave the Gaza Strip.

Zoom in

What makes the difference in Doha this time is a shift in the balance of power in Hamas, which through both The Economist when different Israeli media has been recorded. By killing Hamas leaders in Gaza, the more moderate political leadership of the group – which is staying abroad – would have gained influence. As a result, they would be more flexible in the negotiations with Israel.

Not everyone shares this analysis. “The moderates miss a foreman with the necessary authority in the movement,” says Hugh Lovatt, Hamas expert of the European Council Tank on Foreign Relations. Previously, Ismail Haniyeh fulfilled that role – the influential political leader who died in 2024 at an Israeli attack in Tehran. At the time, his death strengthened the position of the hardliners in Gaza.

“Hamas is a popular movement,” says Lovatt. The political leaders in Doha have much less contact with the supporters than Hamas members in Gaza or on the West Bank. “That somewhat undermines their power and entitlement to legitimacy.” According to Lovatt, a year and a half of war has also had a radicalizing effect on the military branch of Hamas in Gaza: “The attitude is paved, the idea that people must continue to the bitter ending with the fight against Israel.”

Nevertheless, according to Lovatt, the relatively moderate Hamas wing in Doha will be able to conclude an agreement on a ceasefire. It is precisely the use of Israel that makes him pessimistic about a truce. “Hamas is still considering concessions, for example about the number of hostages to be released. But if Netanyahu continues to insist on full disarmament and deportation of Hamas leaders, then you know in advance that Hamas would never accept that. Or only as part of a wider discussion about a Palestinian state. And that is for Israël again.”

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