Hamas demanded and received guarantees from Trump, but is not entirely confident that Israel will stop the fighting

It was a party in the streets of Khan Younis and in the squares of Tel Aviv. Israelis and Palestinians were united for once on Thursday in their joy at reaching an agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza.

Now that the first glasses of the alcoholic aniseed drink arrack have been consumed, attention is turning to the implementation of the plan. For now everything is going as agreed. The Israeli army is withdrawing, and preparations are being made to exchange hostages and prisoners. The first international emergency aid has also arrived in Gaza.

There is also a clear difference between Israeli and Palestinian revelry. For the Israelis, the return of the last twenty living hostages will provide a form of closure. Although Hamas has not been completely defeated, they can continue with their normal lives for the time being.

It’s just beginning in Gaza. The strip of land was destroyed, but the hunger was not immediately driven away. And amid the hopeful reactions, a certain fear is also noticeable: who guarantees the residents of Gaza that Israel will not start bombing again, just as it unilaterally blew up a ceasefire earlier this year?

For Hamas, that guarantee was an important point last week at the negotiating table in the Egyptian seaside resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. For now, Donald Trump appears to have reassured the militant group – at least enough to release the hostages. But, like the Palestinian-Dutch analyst Mouin Rabbani commented on XTrump is known for his short attention span.

The deal is very similar to the previous one, from January: even then, the ceasefire revolved around the release of hostages and prisoners and the admission of emergency aid. That previous agreement was reached the day before Trump’s inauguration, so that he could start his presidential term with a major achievement. When Israel broke the agreement two months later, he did nothing to stop the friendly nation.

Once again, the agreement was reached one day before an important moment: the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize, which Trump hoped for (and which he did not receive). Rabbani suggests that Trump also wants to show off the result this time. But because of the short-term focus, he writes, Israel “will be well positioned to resume the genocide before the end of the month.”

If this proves difficult for whatever reason, Rabbani expects as “plan B” that Netanyahu will involve Hamas “in an Oslo-like process of endless negotiations about nothing.” Resuming war with Lebanon and/or Iran also remains a viable and likely option, the analyst said. Although Israel has been forced into an agreement by Trump, it will continue to consider options so as not to have to make a real peace.

Behind the scenes

Rabbani is not alone in this analysis. Israeli peace negotiator Gershon Baskin gave a speech on Thursday at X interesting insight behind the scenes of the negotiations, and according to him, it was Netanyahu who always did everything he could to avoid having to conclude an agreement. Baskin was not part of the Israeli negotiating team, but operated as an intermediary between the parties.

This deal, Baskin writes, could have happened a long time ago. As early as September 2024, Hamas agreed to a deal engineered by Qatar and Egypt to release all hostages, cease governing Gaza and end the war. But then the response from the Israeli negotiating team was that Prime Minister Netanyahu did not agree to it.

A crucial difference with today, Baskin argues, was the occupation in the White House. Then-President Joe Biden did not take the deal seriously and was also unable to force Israel to make concessions. When Trump did broker a ceasefire just before taking office, it was clear to Baskin that President Biden was projecting American weakness, and President Trump was projecting American power.

From that moment on, Baskin knew he no longer had to put any effort into working with the Israeli negotiators. After all, they could always be forced into a deal by Trump. Instead, the Israeli worked to establish a communication channel between Trump and Hamas.

Distrust after bombing

Starting this summer, work on a deal has been underway. But Netanyahu managed to thwart the negotiations once more, with his airstrike on Hamas officials who were studying a US peace proposal in the Qatari capital Doha.

This bombing led to great distrust of Hamas towards the Americans. Surely they would have known in advance about the impending Israeli attack? Baskin was asked by the Americans to convey the message to Hamas that this was not the case. In the words of Steve Witkoff, quoted by Baskin: “We had nothing to do with this. They (the Israelis) apologized to us. Their statement confirms this. And the president’s Truth Social post is a testament to it.”

Zoom in

Ultimately, Hamas once again trusted the sincerity of the Americans. So much so that it appeared willing to release the hostages without the demands it initially made: the complete withdrawal of the Israeli army and a permanent end to the war. In doing so, Hamas is apparently taking a risk. The hostages were a political bargaining chip for the group, and it has now lost that.

Yet it would not be entirely correct, writes analyst Rabbani, to say that with the release of the remaining hostages, Hamas has lost any remaining influence. “The prisoners were useful only insofar as they forced Israel to agree to an exchange that would free Palestinians from its prison system.” Israel, according to Rabbani, has mainly used the hostages “as a pretext for genocide.”

Manipulation

Hamas may rely on Donald Trump’s word, but the movement is not yet completely confident that it will have a good outcome. On Thursday afternoon, Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem told Al Jazeera Arabic that Israel has begun “manipulating the dates, the lists and some of the procedures and steps agreed in the ceasefire agreement.” According to Qassem, the ceasefire was actually supposed to come into effect on Thursday afternoon at noon, but Israel unilaterally postponed it until Friday.

The Israeli Prime Minister’s public statements also do not inspire much confidence. Last week, when Trump presented his initial peace plan, Netanyahu agreed with the US president during the press conference. And then, immediately afterwards, he told Israeli reporters that the army would not withdraw and there would never be a Palestinian state. Israel also did not keep the agreement to immediately stop the bombings.

Israeli Michael Schaeffer Omer-Man, who works for an NGO that promotes democracy and human rights, told Al Jazeera that Israel has “deliberately, openly and brazenly violated every ceasefire that has been reached to date.” “Ensuring that they adhere to the conditions, that they do not return to fighting and reintroduce the blockade – that they allow not only aid, but also trade goods and people to flow across the border – is something I don’t think we have quite reached yet.”

Resumption feared

Meanwhile, the United States and Qatar have said they will ensure Israel does not take up arms again. And Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar also says that Israel is committed to Trump’s plan and has “no intention” to resume the war once the deal is implemented. Yet on Friday, after the ceasefire came into effect, Netanyahu threatened as usual that Hamas would be stripped of its weapons and that Gaza would be demilitarized. “If you can’t do it the easy way, then do it the hard way.”

Analyst Hugh Lovatt of the NGO International Crisis Group says the success of the ceasefire depends on an “actual political path” to follow. Where that path should lead became clear on Thursday defined by United Nations Secretary General António Guterres: “Ending the occupation, recognizing the right to self-determination of the Palestinian people and a two-state solution that allows Israelis and Palestinians to live in peace and security.”

Without this path, Lovatt said, the process “will likely fall apart.” For now, Israel is not prepared to take any step on the path.

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