Analysts at US investment banking giant Goldman Sachs have specified their expectations for the gold and oil markets in 2025. These are the strong predictions.
• Gold price likely to reach new all-time high
• Oil price heavily dependent on geopolitical tensions
• Goldman Sachs forecasts for 2025 at a glance
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Commodity markets are likely to face challenging and volatile conditions in 2025 as geopolitical uncertainties, inflation and supply changes are expected to play a crucial role. The focus is particularly on the price of gold and oil. Goldman Sachs predicts exciting developments for both markets, offering investors both opportunities and risks.
Gold on the hunt for records: What Goldman Sachs analysts expect for 2025
Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to experience another record rise in 2025. “The precious metal is expected to rise to $3,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2025,” wrote Lina Thomas, commodities strategist at Goldman Sachs Research, on the Goldman Sachs website.
This increase is supported by ongoing uncertainty surrounding inflation and geopolitical risks, with gold seen as a valuable hedge against such crises. In addition, speculative purchases and inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could further fuel the price. However, the structural driver of the optimistic gold forecast is higher demand from central banks, as Daan Struyven, co-head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, explained in a CNBC interview at the end of November 2024.
Particularly in emerging markets, central bank gold purchases have increased significantly since 2022 due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions. Central banks began shifting their reserves from the US dollar into gold – an asset that cannot be frozen. Goldman Sachs estimates that 100 tons of physical demand increases gold prices by at least 2.4 percent.
Oil price at a glance: Will geopolitical tensions shake the market in 2025?
Goldman Sachs also has a clear view of developments in the oil market in 2025: “The base scenario is that oil prices remain in the range of 70 to 85 US dollars. Our forecast for 2025 is 70 to 76 US dollars,” said Struyven on an episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges.
“The big question for investors is whether further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East will lead to a reduction in supplies from Iran,” explained Struyven. If the geopolitical situation were to worsen, for example due to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or a tightening of US sanctions against Iran, this would be a conceivable scenario. In such a worst-case scenario, Goldman Sachs analysts believe prices could move quickly higher due to supply constraints and political uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs warns: Worst-case scenario could drive oil prices to new heights
Goldman Sachs outlines two scenarios that could push oil prices to new heights: With a hypothetical disruption of two million barrels per day for six months, oil prices could temporarily rise to a high of $90 – as long as OPEC producers quickly make up for the shortage . If shortages are not addressed in such a scenario, the price could rise to around $95 per barrel in 2025.
In an alternative scenario, there could be ongoing disruption to Iran’s supply of one million barrels per day. Brent could then reach a peak of around $85 if OPEC gradually eases the shortage, according to Goldman Sachs. If OPEC fails to compensate for the shortage in such a case, the price of oil could rise to a peak of around $95 in 2025, similar to the first scenario.
Despite the uncertainties, according to Goldman Sachs, there is a chance that oil prices will remain stable and possibly even fall in 2025. “However, looking to 2025 and assuming no major escalation, I think the risks to our $70 to $85 scenario are shifted to the downside because we have so much unused capacity. In certain scenarios, prices could move to the low 60 US dollars, for example if OPEC were to bring its production volumes back onto the market for longer than expected,” explained Struyven.
Gold and oil markets 2025 – A year of uncertainty and record prices?
Goldman Sachs’ forecasts for 2025 show that both gold prices and oil prices will be exposed to global political uncertainty, inflation and changes in supply. While the gold market is likely to continue to gain importance as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical crises, the oil market could be influenced by political tensions and production decisions. Investors should prepare for a year of potentially large price swings, as both gold and oil prices could see significant moves.
Editorial team finanzen.net
This text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. finanzen.net GmbH excludes any claims for recourse.
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