The gold price is still in a record rally while the oil prices continue to decrease. Experts see clear signs of an upcoming recession – and a gold price of $ 4,000.
• Gold price on to record course
• Meanwhile, oil prices in the downward vasue
• Bloomberg analyst McGlone warns of recession
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Investors can still be found on the market in turbulent times. The global stock markets experience a phase of considerable uncertainty and volatility, significantly influenced by the economic policy measures of US President Donald Trump. On April 2, 2025, referred to by Trump as “Day of Liberation”, the US government announced extensive import duties. These measures led to a massive break -in of stock markets worldwide. Despite a short-term recovery, for example, after the announcement of a 90-day breaking of further customs increases, the mood on the markets remains tense.
Gold as a safe port in uncertain times
The aggressive trade policy of US President Donald Trump drove the gold price in 2025 to new record heights, because investors are increasingly looking for security in the shiny precious metal. For example, the gold price has often reached new records over the course of the year – recently in April it climbed to just over $ 3,500 per troy ounce and thus cost more than ever before. Since the start of the year, there has been a surcharge of over 25 percent on the spa board (as of May 8, 2025) for the gold price.
Not a good sign of the economy
According to Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, investors are likely to continue to flock to the gold market in droves in order to protect themselves against increasing economic uncertainty. According to him, the gold price should continue to rise, while the oil prices are consistently down. So far, they have lost around 18 percent of value this year (as of May 8, 2025). In this growing discrepancy, the expert now sees a clear warning sign for a possible upcoming recession. The difference between the development of both raw materials this year is historically significant, McGlone emphasized against Kitco News: “In 100 years of annual performance, the decline in oil prices by almost 21% in 2025 increased the discreet difference between 1925 and 2025”.
Gold in front of $ 4,000?
According to McGlone, the latest rally in gold indicates that the precious metal resembles its upward trend from 2007 and 1935 – two periods in which the markets also experienced significant economic turbulence. He sees the next resistance for gold at $ 4,000 per provides. “We see the recovery of the low crude oil price at around $ 40 per barrel and the next resistance of around $ 4,000 per ounce. A weaker US stock market could be an important factor to achieve this goal,” the Bloomberg Analyst also noted opposite Kitco News.
S&P 500 and gold on a collision course?
In addition to the raw material market, McGlone also has the ratio between gold and the S&P 500 in view. He predicts that the price ratio of the two markets could head for parity in the coming months – a scenario that was last reached in 2011 when gold recorded an all -time high of $ 1,900. “The 100-year pattern of the SPX/gold ratio shows a tendency to return to the 1-1 ratio without reaching a low. Perhaps the teachings from history and past patterns will be different this time, but this time the fair value of the S&P 500 of 4.032 in the case of a recession could serve this price in ounces for gold,” said McGlone. “When Gold recently reached a permanent maximum of $ 1,900 in 2011, this was roughly divided into the ratio of the metal in ounces by the S&P 500 of about 1.5. Now it is only around 0.64.”
Although the gold price is currently overbought and oil appears undervalued, McGlone expects that the current trends will continue due to the risk of recession.
Editor finance.net
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