Wholesale gas and electricity prices have fallen sharply in the past month, but they are likely to rise again next year. That’s what experts at ING Research think.

The experts warn that energy-intensive sectors in particular will be affected and consumers will feel the same. “It therefore remains of great importance that companies and households save considerable energy.”

The gas and electricity prices on the wholesale market have fallen to 40 euros per megawatt hour for gas and 100 euros per megawatt hour for electricity, a new publication from the bank estimates. That is still 2 to 2.5 times higher than before the energy crisis, but nowhere near as high as a while ago.

The decrease is mainly due to the now well-filled gas storage facilities and the relatively warm weather for the time of year, in combination with a large-scale supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and European policy to save energy.

Short term

Still, the fall in prices seems short-lived, say ING experts. “This year, the European Union still had a few months of Russian gas available to fill its gas reserves. Next year, Europe will probably have to do without it.” According to the bank, the market therefore expects gas prices to range from 135 to 140 euros per megawatt hour before 2023. The price for electricity could rise again to 300 to 340 euros.

Stop production

ING indicates in its new report on various sectors that the most energy-intensive companies are in, for example, the chemicals, plastics and base metal industries. They will increasingly be forced to partially stop their production, the bank fears.

In addition, the forecasts for the retail sector are striking. According to ING, the retail sector is being hit twice. On the one hand, the purchasing power of consumers decreases, so that they will buy less, on the other, shops are faced with rising costs for energy, purchasing, transport and wages. Thanks to substantial purchasing power repairs by the government, the picture for 2023 is less unfavorable than previously expected, according to ING. However, this does not alter the fact that the sector should take into account a slight contraction in the volumes sold.

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