Future market quantum computing – This share could increase tenfold by 2035

• Analyst sees rapid progress in quantum computing
• Keithen Drury gives IonQ a thumbs up
• However, the forecast is based on several assumptions

The future field of quantum computing is progressing faster than often assumed. At least that’s the view of Keithen Drury, technology analyst at Motley Fool. “The practical application of quantum computers is already around the corner,” he wrote in a post.

IonQ with enormous price potential

The expert’s vision is particularly ambitious for a company in this industry. He believes that IonQ’s value could increase tenfold within around ten years.

Drury argues that the key bottleneck in quantum computing continues to be the accuracy of the systems. In this context, he explains that IonQ stands out due to its particularly high level of precision. The company achieved a world record of 99.99 percent two-qubit gate fidelity, meaning that only about one in 10,000 operations is error-free. Other providers are often below this mark.

However, even this level is not yet sufficient for widespread commercial use. Drury specifically notes that even this level of accuracy is far from the level that would be required to make this technology ready for widespread use.

Market potential: billion dollar market by 2035

A central driver of the investment thesis is expected market growth. Keithen Drury points to McKinsey estimates that the quantum computing market could reach $28 billion to $72 billion by 2035. This range already shows the uncertainty: the range of forecasts is considerable. Nevertheless, this results in a sufficiently large market environment in which individual providers could also develop strongly.

Requirement: Relevant market share

In his thesis of a tenfold increase in value, Drury assumes that, if successful, IonQ could achieve a market capitalization of around $170 billion. In his model calculation, this would require a profit of around $3.4 billion. In order to achieve this profit level, an operating margin of 40 percent is assumed (a comparison with established hardware companies shows that even margins of 50 percent are possible). This results in a necessary turnover of around 8.5 billion US dollars annually.

What is crucial for this development is that IonQ gains a significant market share. If this succeeds, then he has no doubt that the share price will skyrocket, said the analyst.

Risks remain significant

However, implementation will not be easy, admits Drury, because IonQ still has a lot of obstacles ahead of it. These include, in particular, technological challenges, competition and the uncertainty as to whether and when quantum computers will actually become suitable for the masses. The expert also emphasizes that it is by no means guaranteed that IonQ will be able to maintain its current technological leadership position.

Classification for private investors

The IonQ share is therefore an example of a classic high-risk, high-reward bet. Because the chance of a tenfold increase is based on several assumptions at the same time – technological leadership, successful scaling and a strongly growing overall market. Each of these conditions is inherently uncertain. Private investors should therefore have a long investment horizon and, above all, be aware that complete failure is also possible.

Keithen Drury’s analysis shows that IonQ could be a possible candidate with above-average price potential – albeit with a correspondingly high risk.

Thomas Zoller, editorial team at finanzen.net

Selected leverage products on IonQ

With knock-outs, speculative investors can participate disproportionately in price movements. Simply select the lever you want and we will show you suitable open-end products on IonQ

The leverage must be between 2 and 20

Advertising