Finally Formula 1 again! The motorsport premier class starts its 77th season this weekend with the Melbourne Grand Prix – and with completely changed cars and engines. The new set of rules is likely to shake up the balance of power of the past few years. Who is the favorite, who is doing well and who is lagging behind? Together with RTL expert Christian Danner, sport.de delivers the big Formula 1 power ranking at the start of the season.
How the new Formula 1 cars will work in competition mode, who will really have advantages or disadvantages in qualifying and the race – is something that nobody can currently predict with 100 percent certainty. Especially on a track as special as Albert Park in Melbourne.
But: The shakedown in Barcelona and the two test phases in Bahrain provided important insights and clues as to where the eleven teams stand. At least one thing can be said with certainty: there is a clear bottom and a clear favorite. The sport.de-Power ranking with RTL-Expert Christian Danner.
The red lantern lights up green – Aston Martin has huge problems
The test drives in Bahrain turned into a fiasco for the team led by F1 legend Fernando Alonso. At the beginning of 2026, Aston Martin is miles away from the goal of being at the forefront, and there is no sign of Adrian Newey’s hoped-for magic – which is mainly due to the exclusive engine partner Honda. During the tests, the AMR26 with the Japanese engine repeatedly stopped.
“If you read what Honda itself says about the problems, namely that they are destroying the battery due to engine vibrations, then it’s something serious. Previously you would have said: You have to go back to the drawing board. You have a lot of work ahead of you,” explains RTL expert Danner. This means: Aston Martin is starting the season with a hefty (Honda) mortgage and has to catch up a lot in order to catch up with the competition. This can take time, “even longer with the new regulations,” notes Danner.
The former Formula 1 driver clears up speculation that Aston Martin will only drive a few show laps in Melbourne due to the problem and park the car. “They drive as long as they can – if they break, they break, that’s it.” With a view to the tests, there is a “certain basic probability” that the Racing Greens will not see the checkered flag Down Under.
Cadillac – “experienced” newcomer who has a lot to learn
The team of Michael and Mario Andretti “got in bravely,” praises Danner, the Formula 1 newcomer from the USA. He attributes the fact that Cadillac is not out of the loop to the “relatively experienced Formula 1 people” who work for Cadillac: “And it’s not just the drivers Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez. They know exactly where they need to improve,” says the RTL commentator.
“I think this is a team that will develop towards midfield. The tests went okay, but they still have room to get to where they see themselves,” said Danner. In terms of aerodynamics, Cadillac is “still pretty mediocre.” When it comes to the engine, the US racing team as a Ferrari customer can’t complain.
A compact midfield block – with Audi right in the middle
In front of the backbenchers Aston Martin and Cadillac, Danner sees a compact midfield block. “Williams, Racings Bulls, Audi, Haas – they are all on the same level,” predicts the 67-year-old.
Danner is a little disappointed with Williams. “If you consider that they have only been talking about 2026 for two years and have now started like this, leaving no impression and making no progress, that is worrying,” the expert criticizes the traditional British racing team. Williams even missed the opener in Barcelona due to “delays” in the car’s design. “At the moment I don’t see Williams really making any progress,” Danner is skeptical.
“Pretty far up front in the midfield pack,” says 36-time Grand Prix starter Haas. The US team “always has the same concept” and, as a Ferrari customer, focuses “on what they can and are allowed to do, what is possible. They implement this philosophy perfectly,” praises Danner. With Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman, the team also has two “very fast drivers”.
Video: Who has the prettiest? All Formula 1 cars 2026
The Red Bull junior team Racing Bulls is also an integral part of the “compact” midfield block for Danner. Danner hints at skepticism when it comes to the driving duo of the young bulls. “In terms of drivers, they no longer have such a highlight in the car as they did in 2025 with Isack Hadjar. We’ll see to what extent Arivd Lindblad can cope with that, he didn’t drive that much in the tests. Liam Lawson can at least be classified to some extent. But in this narrow midfield it will be extremely important for the drivers to make the small difference.”
F1 newcomer Audi made a surprisingly good and stable impression during the test drives. Danner sees it that way too. “It was a very positive surprise for Audi that they fit into the midfield relatively easily. We won’t know exactly where they stand until things get going. But what we’ve seen so far is above expectations,” says the F1 expert.
Video: Günther Steiner “positively surprised” by Audi
Danner sees “a very solid basis” at Alpine. In 2026, the proud French brand will no longer be chasing points with its own Renault engines, but with German-British Mercedes engines in the rear. Certainly not a disadvantage.
“This is a relief for team boss Flavio Briatore, he didn’t like the Renault engines,” says Danner: “Alpine is more likely to be at the front in the midfield than at the back.”
Ferrari is currently only the fourth Formula 1 force
“Ferrari is among the top group – that’s a statement,” Danner gives the Tifosi hope. “For me, they are currently only fourth within the top group.”
Positive: Ferrari never complained of any major problems during all test drives, Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton reliably clocked up kilometers in the SF-26. “The car works, is reliable and reasonably fast,” says Danner.
Thanks to this solid foundation, Hamilton, which is often so sad in 2025, could blossom again. Judging by the test impressions, the Scuderia now has a “happy Lewis again. And a happy Lewis is a fast Lewis,” said Danner. Ferrari is not the favorite, but the Reds “definitely” have a better package than last year.
Video: Danner assessment: Is there a threat of F1 cancellations?
Mercedes has an advantage thanks to the engine – Russell favorite
“The top group is pretty compact. There are only small differences,” says Danner, looking forward to the start of the season in Australia.
At the front, the RTL commentator sees the Silver Arrows from Mercedes. “If you look at the long runs of the tests, the Mercedes is already suspiciously good. But it’s not as if Max Verstappen’s Red Bull can’t keep up and both McLarens are there too. But Mercedes is the benchmark. You can see that in the fact that the silver ones are almost panicking trying to get out of the role of favorites. That always indicates that Mercedes still has reserves.”
Danner praises Red Bull’s engine brains. The first in-house engine from Milton Keynes “works excellently”. However, the “sensationally reliable” Mercedes engine is the Silver Arrows’ trump card – from which the customer McLaren also benefits.
In this context, Danner points to a “fundamental advantage” of Mercedes, which, in addition to the works team and defending champion McLaren, also supplies Williams and Alpine with engines. This means that a lot of data flows into Mercedes know-how.
“The energy management processes of the units are extremely complex in nature,” analyzes the expert: “If you have data from different cars and different drivers, you are of course in a much better position in terms of implementation and analysis to achieve further development in the right direction. Mercedes, with its three customers, has a big advantage.”
Danner’s favorite for the driver’s title is Mercedes driver George Russell. Compared to his Italian stable rival Kimi Antonelli, the experienced Briton is “the better one in the Mercedes cockpit, so he is also my World Cup candidate.”
