Third on the racetrack but second on the starting grid for the 2023 Qatar Grand Prix on Sunday: George Russell sees good chances for himself and Mercedes of a top-three result after McLaren drivers Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri faced track limits -violations themselves have put themselves in a better starting position.
Because McLaren was actually faster than Mercedes in qualifying. At least that’s what Russell said in the press conference: “Lando was before us and his [Tracklimits-Verstoß] contributed only marginally to his performance. You have to drive very precisely. Sometimes it’s a matter of millimeters.” And driving out too far didn’t give Norris too much of an advantage.
With a time of 1:24.074 minutes, McLaren driver Norris was 0.145 seconds ahead of Mercedes driver Russell in Q3 before his lap time was subsequently revoked due to his track limit violation. With a time of 1:24.219 minutes, Russell “inherited” second place behind Red Bull driver Max Verstappen and Russell’s teammate Lewis Hamilton moved up two positions to third place.
Where McLaren was faster than Mercedes
But the final result should not hide the true balance of power, emphasizes Russell: “We are half a step behind McLaren. We know that.”
According to the analysis by F1 Tempo, this means in Qatar: McLaren has slightly better top speed on the straight-ahead sections and is already a tenth of a second ahead of Mercedes up to the first corner alone. Up to Turn 6, Russell turns the tables on Norris and creates a tenth of a buffer for his part, but by Turn 11 this becomes around two and a half tenths behind.
And the tide turns again: By turn 14, Russell works his way up by one and a half tenths in a head-to-head comparison, before Norris shines in the fast corners at the end of the lap and gains three tenths on Russell by the finish line.
Can Mercedes really keep McLaren in the race?
Which raises the question of whether Mercedes can compete against McLaren over the Grand Prix distance if the MCL60 is superior to the W14 over a flying lap. But Russell thinks McLaren is “definitely” beatable, probably also due to the worse starting positions for Norris and Piastri.
“We know that on Sunday the vehicles will be closer together. But Lando was incredibly fast in Suzuka. He will be our biggest opponent. But I see no reason why we shouldn’t fight for podium places with both cars.”
No chance against almost world champion Verstappen
But that will probably happen behind favorite Verstappen in the Red Bull, admits Russell. He doesn’t see a realistic chance of winning, but could see Verstappen “after turn 1 [höchstens] wave goodbye” because he would then drive away.
“Max is doing an outstanding job and deserves to be world champion this year,” says Russell. “We have to do better next year and challenge him.”
Mercedes has already improved compared to the start of the season, says Russell. His team now has “significantly better qualifying,” which is reflected in the driver’s more self-confidence in the cockpit.
How Mercedes has improved over the season
Russell attributes this primarily to “lessons learned” and the “experience” gained with the W14 Mercedes. He explains: “We were clearly behind at the start of the season. We then tried a lot of different things with the car.”
“In principle, we have used the same set-up over the past five race weekends. So we know what the car needs to deliver maximum performance. That helps us to be consistent.” Nevertheless, Mercedes “definitely didn’t expect to be P2 and P3 on the starting grid” in Qatar, said Russell. “This is a pleasant surprise.”
Form was already evident early in qualifying
On the other hand, this strong form was already evident at the beginning of qualifying. Only a “mistake” on his part in Q1 concealed it, says Russell: “That cost me three tenths. Otherwise I could have been in the top three.”
“In Q2 I drove with used tires. P5 was a strong result. The fact that we were in the top three in Q3 wasn’t a big surprise.”
Drive into the unknown over the racing distance
However, it is unclear what the rest of the weekend in Qatar has in store for everyone involved. There are “a lot of unknowns,” says Russell. “Tire wear is such an issue. Will there be a stop [im Grand Prix] or two?”
“The track is also constantly changing. My first lap in qualifying was two seconds faster than in free practice. I don’t think I’ve ever experienced a jump like that in Formula 1. That’s why we don’t know what will happen on Saturday and Sunday happened.”
Why Russell stopped in pit lane
And what happened in Q3 immediately before the decisive laps? Russell stopped in the pit lane with a few fellow drivers behind him – similar to Verstappen in Singapore, who received a warning for doing so. The sports commissioners later expressly did not want the incident to be seen as a precedent, and Russell escaped without being investigated in Qatar.
He describes the situation like this: “When you’re standing in line in the pit lane, you don’t even see how many cars are in front of you. Everyone is five to seven seconds apart [zum Vordermann] out of. If there are ten cars in a row in the pit lane, that means you have to wait at least 50 seconds.”
As a Formula 1 driver, you rely on this distance for optimal performance over a flying lap, says Russell. And the world association has already intervened “definitely positively” by setting a maximum time for the section between the two safety car lines.
“At the same time, we are allowed to keep our distance in the pit lane. But that can also be stressful if you’re literally standing in the pit lane for a minute. You don’t know what’s going to happen, whether you’ll even get over the line in time the tires. That’s the challenge,” explains Russell.