In advance, it was expected that top official Sue Gray’s report would be rather flimsy, so as not to hinder an ongoing police investigation. Was this right?
“To the extent that no names are mentioned or no culprits are identified. Gray has painted more of a general picture of the party culture on Downing Street. And she actually says: a number of drinks were in violation of the corona rules. That turned out to be enough to severely damage Johnson.
‘With twelve pages, the report is very concise: there are five hundred pages of evidence and three hundred photos, and as many as seventy witnesses testified. And so we wait again, this time for the police report, which should contain much more detail.’
How has Gray’s report been responded to in the UK?
Johnson is held responsible for the culture on Downing Street. He has previously said the get-togethers weren’t against the rules, Gray says they were. In doing so, he misinformed parliament. He did not realize that the rules were broken, is now his defense.
‘On the other hand, Downing Street has expanded enormously in recent decades. Once this was just the office of the Prime Minister and his advisers, now hundreds of people work there. That is almost incalculable for a prime minister. That is why Gray has said: there must be a separate department, a Ministry of General Affairs like the Netherlands has, to better maintain order. She has helped Johnson a bit with that: he can come up with a solution.’
What will depend on whether the silk thread on which his premiership hangs will snap?
‘Not enough letters have come in from MPs who give up their confidence, so he still has some respite. That thread could still break if more comes to light after the police investigation, especially about the four drinks that allegedly took place inside, in the official residence itself. If those were indeed kept there and were illegal, Johnson will be fined for breaking his own rules. That is very serious for a prime minister.’
How does his own Conservative Party view this report?
‘It’s split. In part, there is dissatisfaction with Johnson’s performance in the House of Commons yesterday. He began to fight and counterattacked, perhaps a little more modesty.
“There’s also some fear that he lives in another world, that he doesn’t quite sense how much anger there is about him. In the past, as mayor of London, he used to cycle through the city. Then voters could call him names or laugh at him. Now he almost only comes into contact with them during tightly organized working visits. You see that more often with British Prime Ministers, that they hubris get, overconfidence. At Johnson, this process seems to be happening quickly.
“But in another part of the party, the prime minister still enjoys a lot of support. He gave the Conservatives their biggest election victory since Thatcher’s in 1987. Many MPs owe their MPs their membership to him.
“Johnson is trying to buy time now, because who knows what the world will look like in a few weeks. Is the queen still alive? How are the municipal elections in May? Has war broken out?’
Speaking of which, Johnson is speaking today in Kiev with Ukrainian President Zelensky about the Russian threat. Is he using this to get out of political trouble?
“Of course this is a way for him to show that there are more important things in the world than parties. He is going to give Ukraine money, 100 million euros, in support of the country. And Zelensky is an old comedian: there is a high level of comedy between these two.
Johnson knows that Margaret Thatcher was in serious trouble in the early 1980s, especially in the economic field. For her, the Falklands War came at the right time, and it resulted in a major election victory. And Johnson knows his history.
‘He therefore adopts a kind of Messianic attitude, he wants to present himself as the savior and defender of Ukraine. Certainly after Brexit, he wants to show that the British have not withdrawn to their island, but are a power factor on the world stage. This is striking in Ukraine: the hashtag ‘God Save the Queen’ was even trending on Twitter there.
‘Although you notice that partygate is already hindering Johnson in his actions in the Ukraine crisis. Yesterday he was supposed to call Putin, but that was canceled because he had to come to the House of Commons to apologize for all kinds of parties.’