Fold or call on the river? Let’s analyze the Barer vs. Kaufmann hand

When we analyze an interesting heist, the premise is always the same. Knowing the players’ cards first leads us to error. We don’t take into account range, size and anything else. Let’s see together what happened in the hand that Ami Barer played against David Kaufmann

A FLOP TO BE INTERPRETED

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In the vast world of poker, like other disciplines, there are not only top pros. Let’s think of the number 40 in tennis or golf or simply a great chess master. Not being in the top 10 in the world, or on the cover of specialized sites, doesn’t mean you’re not “up to par”. Indeed: more often than not, it is very difficult for us mere mortals to think like a professional because we lack depth of experience, technique and strategy. Poker, unlike other games, is what you see the “champion” stumble upon incorrect readings. It happens: the level of thought is so deep that sometimes it doesn’t matter. Today’s analysis takes us to the EPT Paris in 2024. We are at 100k/150k blinds for the Main Event and only 9 artists remain in play. It goes without saying that the first coin, but not only that, is truly succulent. David Kaufmann from the top of his 11 million stack opens games by raising to 300k (standard 2x). They call both Peter Jorgne (stack, 8.2 million) and Ami Barer who has 7.3 million chips. The first is in position above all. The second puts in the big blind. The flop is J♦ T♦ 2♠ which doesn’t bode well. The board at this moment is connected and coordinated and many hands would struggle to win the shot immediately. After BB checks, Kaufmann continuation-bets for 300k. Jorgne called while Barer raised to 1.4 million. Just call Kaufmann. Let’s stop

HAND BARER VS KAUFMANN: FOLD OR CALL?

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The original raiser knows that with this board he exposes himself to check-raising or floating in position. However, the cbet, in a 3-way pot with a coordinated flop, denotes a certain strength (or rather: represents it). The check-raise could have been foreseeable. Perhaps Jorgne’s initial call gave an extra boost to Barer but so far nothing particularly strange other than the BB range. Would you have done this with doubles, top pair or draw? The turn is a 6♥ that doesn’t close. At this point Barer exits betting 2.6 million. Here too, a somewhat predictable move. Kaufmann doesn’t give up. The river is a 3♦ which closes flush draw. Who is this card good for? Rethink everything: pre action, and bet the flop to try to narrow the ranges. It’s Barer’s turn to check: scared or trapped? THEThe pot is 9.6 million and Barer left behind about 2.8 million. Kaufmann puts his opponent who thinks for a long time all in. Finally comes the fold! It’s a painful decision given that Barer had J♠ J♥ for a top set. Now let’s ask ourselves: we have the highest set on the river and we are put all in. From what? What (value) point are we making with this action along the streets? There is perhaps only one answer: the hand of Kaufmann, or T♥ T♣ who had also found three of a kind. For pocket jacks, the opponent has perhaps a very small air range and a lot of value. That diamond on the river obviously made all the difference in the world