It will become more difficult for job seekers to find a job in Drenthe in the coming years. Job growth is being held back by global unrest. Yet, despite several wars and associated misery, we should not let ourselves be fooled. That is the gist of the UWV’s labor market forecast.
After years of growth, the future of the Drenthe labor market is uncertain. For example, if the war in the Middle East ends quickly, the UWV expects the number of jobs to grow slightly between 2025 and 2028. But if energy prices remain high, they expect the number to drop.
Erik Oosterveld, labor market advisor at the UWV, states that the economy in Drenthe has been doing quite well in recent years. “We come from a very good starting position,” he says. “We now see that those high energy prices may bring employment to a standstill.”
Drenthe is one of the regions that are hit above average by persistently high energy prices. This is due to the presence of many energy-intensive sectors, such as industry, construction, transport, and employment agencies.
According to Oosterveld, the transport sector and industry are being hit the hardest. “But if you translate that, people will soon pay more for everything. As a result, they will have less to spend, buy fewer luxury products and go to the catering industry less.”
According to the labor market advisor, this will ensure that many sectors will feel it. He predicts that employers will therefore be cautious when it comes to hiring new people.
The UWV has calculated two scenarios. “A scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz will open again quickly and energy prices will drop quickly,” Oosterveld explains. “In that case you will see a small job growth in Drenthe.”
The second scenario takes into account that the situation will last another two years, which means that a small decline in jobs is expected. “The differences are not very large, but it does mean the difference between small job growth and small job shrinkage.”
“The war in Iran will pass again,” says Oosterveld. But according to him, there are also all kinds of other things going on, such as the rise of AI and the aging population. “We need to build homes, provide good care, good education, defense,” he sums up. “Many challenges, even apart from the temporary disruption caused by high energy prices.”
In the healthcare and welfare sector, Drenthe’s main job driver, the number of jobs continues to grow steadily. The demand for care and personnel remains high due to an aging population, but also due to the enforcement of bogus self-employment. As a result, several self-employed people have stopped.
Jobs at management consultancy firms and legal service providers are also growing steadily. The number of jobs in agriculture remains fairly stable, although uncertainty surrounding nitrogen policy, environmental regulations and business succession continues to weigh on employment.
Oosterveld: “I think we should not be distracted by this temporary dip and focus much more on what we have to do in the long term.” According to the labor market advisor, what we need for this is a well-educated labor force. “We need everyone who is available for that.”
According to him, job seekers don’t have to worry. “But I also think that you should not sit still, it is important to keep an eye on how your job changes due to developments,” Oosterveld explains.
“For example, AI has consequences for the range of tasks you have to perform, so respond to that. Continue to train, continue to develop and then you can respond to those changes.”