48 hours after the start of the general election campaign, the Center for Sociological Research once again distances itself from the trends of the majority of surveys and gives wings to a majority of the left. According to the CIS pre-election survey, PP and PSOE are in technical tie at the gates of the campaign, separated by just two tenths in favor of Alberto Núñez Feijóo. In seats, and although the width of the forks makes the forecasts less exact, the leftist bloc could reach 185 deputies, above the 176 absolute majority. The PP and Vox block, on the other hand, would stay with 169 deputies in the most favorable scenario for them.
For the first time in this legislature, the CIS predicts the victory in votes of the PP, with a 31.4% of the votes, and leaves the PSOE in second place, with a 31.2% of the ballots. Since the June barometer, carried out just after the regional and municipal elections, the popular ones have won seven tenths and the socialists have not changed their expectations. However, the large forks of the survey prevent assigning a clear winner: Feijóo would obtain 122-140 deputies (now he is 89) and Sánchez, 115-135 deputies (today it has 120).
What the survey clearly reflects is a strong rise in Sumar, the coalition of Yolanda Diazcompared to the result that Unidas Podemos reaped in 2019, and a strong collapse of Vox, which would lose half of its current representation. Add would achieve 16.4% of the votes and 43-50 seats (Unidas Podemos now has 26) and vox it would fall to 10.6% of the votes and 21-29 seats (today it has 52). The contrast between the evolution of the vote of both blocks is striking: while the growth of the PP clearly lacerates Vox, the same is not the case between the PSOE and Sumar, since the survey predicts better results in both cases than in the previous elections.
In fact, with these seat estimates, Pedro Sanchez Díaz’s support could suffice to reissue the coalition government, given that PSOE and Sumar move in a fork of 158-185 seats. On the contrary, Feijóo would not reach the absolute majority in any case, since PP and Vox are located in 143-169 deputies.
The field work of this macro-survey, prepared from almost 30,000 telephone interviewshas been carried out during the last 20 days of June, after the victory of the PP in the municipal and regional elections of May 28 and in full negotiations for the constitution of the municipalities and the conformation of the regional parliaments, a process in which agreements of different intensity have been seen between the PP and Vox. These 30,000 interviews is one of the highest figures that the CIS has handled in its history, with a minimum sample of 1,000 questionnaires per province, which allows adjusting the allocation of seats to Congress.
Related news
In case of having to look for a third partner, Sánchez would have it easier than Feijóo, although his main ally during the last legislature, ERC, would suffer a significant bump. Following in the wake of the municipal elections, the Republicans would fall from 13 to 5-7 seats and they could lose their particular pulse with Junts, which would also drop from 8 to 3-6 deputies. Also very close is the battle between the GNP and EH Bildu: according to the CIS, the abertzales would get 4-7 parliamentarians and the penuvistas, 3-5 representatives. He BNG it would go from 1 to 2-3 seats and three other forces are in the wire of 0-1 deputy: Canarian Coalitionthe CUP and teruel exists.
In addition to this electoral macro survey, the CIS plans to carry out a ‘flash poll‘ to update his forecast, the results of which will be announced halfway through the campaign, before July 18, which is when the legal ban on publishing polls begins.