February deep red crypto month: This has put a strain on Bitcoin, Ethereum & Co. – The further outlook

• Bitcoin loses around a quarter of its value in February
• US President Donald Trump played a crucial role
• Experts remain cautious about further Bitcoin developments

On a monthly basis, Bitcoin has recently lost 18.91 percent of its value (as of March 1, 2026). On February 6, 2026, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency even fell to a 52-week low at $60,987.51. The decisive factor for the market weakness was an interaction between aggressive US trade policy, the escalation in the Iran conflict and regulatory tightening in China.

Donald Trump is pushing global tariffs

Developments in US customs policy are primarily behind the recent price fluctuations of Bitcoin, Ethereum & Co. Despite legal headwinds from the Supreme Court, US President Donald Trump is continuing his course against global trading partners. Although the Supreme Court had prohibited him from imposing tariffs on imports of goods from many countries under emergency law, Trump immediately announced that he would use other methods to continue enforcing his tariffs.

In fact, US tariffs of 10 percent have already come into force worldwide. But that’s not all: Trump announced via the Truth Social platform that he would raise the tariff rate to 15 percent. This would make full use of the maximum limit of the underlying trade law. While Trump has already publicly proclaimed the 15 percent, according to reports there is no formal order on this yet. However, an administration official confirmed to Bloomberg that the White House is working on a corresponding regulation, although the timeline for implementation is still unclear.

Bitcoin as a risky investment: “Digital gold” is not confirmed

The crypto market’s reaction to economic uncertainty illustrates the current correlation of the original cryptocurrency Bitcoin with the stock markets. Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets, told Bloomberg: “President Trump’s decision to raise global tariffs to 15 percent has shaken risk assets broadly, and Bitcoin has moved with them. Despite the ‘digital gold’ narrative, Bitcoin continues to trade as a risk asset. As macroeconomic fears increase, capital moves to traditional safe havens. Bitcoin is not there yet.”

Geopolitical risks: Ultimatum in the Iran conflict

The market is experiencing additional strain due to the threat of military escalation in the Middle East. The USA is demanding that the leadership in Tehran refrain from developing nuclear weapons. The government in Tehran denies such intentions, but shows itself ready to limit its nuclear program – in return for the lifting of tough economic sanctions.

In mid-February, US President Trump gave the Iranian government an ultimatum until the beginning of March and threatened: “Either we reach an agreement or it will be unfortunate for them.” Military intervention is on the cards. In this context, the Wall Street Journal reports the largest deployment of US air forces in the region since the Iraq War in 2003. The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford already left its berth off Crete, presumably to strengthen the US fleet in the Middle East.

Regulatory headwinds from the Far East

The negative mood is flanked by news from China. As the BeInCrypto portal reports, citing a statement from the People’s Bank of China and other authorities, Beijing is massively tightening its stance towards cryptocurrencies. The new measures from February 6th specifically target stablecoins and the tokenization of real-world assets. Experts would rate these bans as the strictest intervention since the comprehensive crypto ban of 2021.

Experts remain cautious about Bitcoin

With regard to further short-term developments, numerous experts, including Willy Woo, urge patience. The renowned on-chain analyst estimates that the bottom of the bear market could be around $45,000, with more extreme scenarios potentially reaching $30,000 or even lower. He justifies his caution with declining liquidity in the spot and derivatives markets, which has weakened the strength of rallies in the past. As Woo explained, he believes it is possible that Bitcoin could briefly rise to around $70,000, but then it would again come under downward pressure.

This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a repreive to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely to be rejected.

This is because the broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures… pic.twitter.com/MAUlmBJtbE

-Willy Woo (@willywoo) February 27, 2026

Standard Chartered also predicts further downward pressure on the Bitcoin price. According to Bitcoin.com, Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital asset research, believes “we will see further losses and a final period of capitulation in digital asset prices over the next few months,” explaining that “the macroeconomic environment is unlikely to provide support until Warsh takes over as Fed chairman.” Therefore, he predicts “this will lead to a price of $50,000 or just below for BTC.”

However, the well-known Bitcoin bull Tom Lee is more optimistic. As MarketWatch reports, the co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors believes that cryptocurrencies are in the final weeks of their decline. To put things in perspective, however, MarketWatch points out that Lee has been far too optimistic with some of his crypto predictions in the past. Like when he announced last summer that Bitcoin “could easily rise to $200,000” by the end of 2025.

Editorial team finanzen.net

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