The transition to a decarbonised energy model create jobs, improve public health and mitigate climate change. But making this future a reality will require more than the gradual substitution of fossil fuels. Production of a wide range of energy-relevant materials (lithium, cobalt and nickel for batteries; rare earth elements for wind turbines and electric motors; silicon for solar panels; copper for expanding the electrical grid; etc.) must be increased substantially. And, without a doubt, the management of the environmental, economic, social and geopolitical impacts generated throughout the entire value chain of these materials, from their extraction and processing to their recycling, constitutes a huge challenge.
Various studies conclude that Producing the materials necessary for the energy transition will be an arduous task. Thus, the International Energy Agency predicts that keeping the world on a path compatible with the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement will require multiply by six the production of these materials between 2020 and 2040, up to 43 million tons per year. A figure that, at first glance, may seem small when compared to that of the fossil fuel industry, which on a global scale and in 2020 alone mobilized approximately 15,000 million tons of coal, oil and natural gas, the combustion of which the emission of 32,000 million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
However, the task will be more difficult than it seems. Nickel, cobalt, and copper, along with many other energy-relevant materials, are found in low-grade ores, involving far more mining, processing, and waste than fossil fuels. Securing the millions of tons of finished materials needed for the transition will require mining hundreds or thousands of times more raw ore. And while the transition may ultimately reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as mining processes increasingly rely on renewable energy, the change in energy model will require the processing of metallic ores on a scale that rivals the flow of raw materials from current fossil fuel industries.
The potential damages of the transition are considerable. Large-scale mining affects ecosystems, threatens water supplies, and is sometimes linked to poor working conditions, corruption, and human rights abuses. But increasing mining to drive the transition to low-carbon energy sources also offers an opportunity to reform materials production, making it more socially and environmentally just. Developed countries, which have often outsourced mineral extraction abroad, must help shoulder these burdens and implement responsible development paths.
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To meet the global challenge of the energy transition Government policies are needed to support public and private sector investment at every stage of extraction and processing. This means boosting exploration, simplified procedures for granting mining permits, research into new technologies, support to expand processing capacity, and international trade agreements that guarantee supply. Over the past decade, China has prioritized such public-private investments from the mine to the factory. And only recently have the United States and the European Union begun to adopt similar policies, aimed at developing domestic supply chains and diversifying international sources of energy-relevant materials.
The energy transition is an extractive transition: from oil, gas and coal to a wide range of minerals and metals. In the medium-long term, innovation will help overcome some of the challenges posed by this transit, but it will not eliminate the material-intensive nature of low-carbon technologies. We must accept this reality and act now, without further delay.