Will it be center-right (D66, VVD, CDA, JA21), or will the VVD lift the blockade on the left and will they soon be in the coalition with D66, GL/PvdA and CDA? That chance does not seem great, although the ‘sense of responsibility for the national interest’ will certainly be appealed to in the near future.
Wouter de Winther: instability leaderless GL/PvdA can help the centre-right
One thing is certain: the PVV, despite its large number of seats and as a likely number two, is excluded from government participation by most parties. Depending on the final result – the question remains which party will get the remaining seat – various options will arise that will be mapped out.
According to the ANP, the remaining seat will remain with the SP and will not be transferred to D66, as could have happened. It means that the VVD’s dream coalition (with D66, CDA and JA21) is just one seat short of a majority in the House of Representatives.
Wouter Koolmees in the picture as a scout
The first step to be taken on Tuesday is the so-called exploration. The king used to take the lead, but since 2012 that task has fallen to the House of Representatives. Aspiring Prime Minister Rob Jetten has already announced that he wants to nominate a scout on Tuesday, when all party leaders meet with House Speaker Martin Bosma.
Ronald Plasterk: there is only one possible and logical coalition after paradoxical election results
In recent years, this has usually been someone ‘with some distance from daily politics’. After reporting from RTL Nieuws, sources from The Hague confirm that former minister and current NS boss Wouter Koolmees is in the picture for this scouting role.
NS boss Wouter Koolmees is in the picture as a scout. © ANP
What does a scout do?
After the faction chairmen’s meeting, Chamber Chairman Bosma will announce who will lead the exploration. That person can map out the political puzzle: which parties want to talk to each other, which combinations are even possible, and which route should be taken first?
Wilders claimed abuses without evidence
But before the formation circus really starts, the result must be officially determined. D66 already claimed the election win last week, based on the calculations of the ANP Elections Service. This led to bitter Twitter messages from PVV leader Geert Wilders, who suggested without evidence that there were abuses at polling stations.
VNG: suggestion that rigged elections is a threat to democracy
This in turn led to anger in some municipalities. Behind the scenes there is also some discomfort in The Hague about the timing of Jetten’s claim, because according to some, it gave unnecessary oxygen to the fire that Wilders stoked.
On Monday evening, all postal votes from voters from abroad were counted in the municipality of The Hague. Even after those postal votes, D66 remained ahead of the PVV. On Thursday 6 and Friday 7 November, the reports from all polling stations will then be checked in the House of Representatives.
New House of Representatives installed on November 12
The Electoral Council will determine the final results on Friday, November 7. Only then can the new Chamber be installed. That will also take a few more days: on Tuesday, November 11, the old House of Representatives will say goodbye, after which the installation of the new Members of Parliament will take place on Wednesday, November 12.
Will this work before Christmas?
In the meantime, the scout will – as stated in the assignment – “based on numerical possibilities and an initial substantive direction” find out which parties can form a stable coalition. The information phase can then be started, led by an informant. Only after that phase does the formation phase follow, with a formateur.
Will all this be possible before Christmas, as party leaders previously hoped? The joke is already being heard in The Hague: maybe the one from 2026?