Political effects always exist. The point is how much effect and in what respects. In this case, we believe that the reading is more political than legal, since nothing announced in court will change the political game.
First, the movie doesn’t end on Tuesday. The Vice President will appeal and then file appeals with the Supreme Court. So nothing is final.
Second, the vast majority of society considers her guilty. Whether they are wrong or not, seven out of ten voters have no doubt about their legal responsibility.
Third, the judicial times mean that nothing prevents her from being a candidate for something next year, although she has lowered herself in her speech after the sentence on Tuesday the 6th.
The effect will be more media than political. Unlike other situations, the main players have so far appeared somewhat cautious about the hubbub. This creates a strategic complication. To the extent that she wishes to continue with the line started immediately in the silver -that of extending the arms to contain all the front– will come into contradiction with their need to confront their causes.
This relevant detail will have an effect on strategic decisions. The vast majority of pro-government governors will not change their decision to advance elections. Obvious because they believe that it is lost, but also because they do not see in Cristina Kirchner some magical idea that turns a negative prognosis around. Another savior like Alberto 2019 doesn’t sound likely. The same applies mostly to the mayors of the province of Buenos Aires.
For the social majority, the confirmation bias will occur, it will seal CFK’s electoral ceiling and the relevant actors will not play strong cards for someone else’s destiny. Unless an economic miracle happens and public opinion downplays the importance of the issues being processed in court.
* By Carlos Fara, political analyst, head of Carlos Fara y Asociados,
by Carlos Fara*
