KuPS starts the second part of the tie and is the favorite against Milsam, while SJK starts as a clear underdog and from a goal behind at home as a guest of the tough Lilleström.
Tim Väyrynen’s KuPS is aiming for a further place in Moldova. Juha Tamminen, AOP
The most interesting game of the day
The interest of the day is focused on Moldova, where KuPS is hunting for a further place in the Conference League as a guest of Milsam.
In the opening part, KuPS was clearly better than the Moldovans and could have nailed a couple of matches with a better finish, but it turned out differently. The second half was initially clearly dominated by Kukkönig, but the goal scoring slowed down and the final score was 2-2 – although the goalkeeper Johannes Kreidl assisted in his part in the visitors’ goals.
The journey for the people of Kuopio to the match venue has been exceptionally difficult, long and demanding. After several air connections, there was still a long bus march ahead, so traveling has certainly been exhausting – hopefully this will not show in the team’s performance on a warm Thursday night in Orhei.
The opening part showed that Milsami is a moderate betting league level, at least at his best. Sharp counterattacks were the team’s expected bite, but nothing really wanted to come from longer attacks. It is to be expected that in the second part, KuPS will have clearly more control over the game equipment, especially in the opening period.
Of course, it is to be expected that at the very beginning of the game the hosts try to come with a good tempo and maybe a little bit more greedy press. The team’s strengths also clearly include recognizing the opponent’s imbalance. When KuPS had a more difficult period at the end of the opening half, Milsami was able to put pressure on the Finns’ end and take the momentum for himself.
Personally, I would see the situation in such a way that KuPS, as early favorites, has more pressure on their neck, while Milsami gets to the second part as an underdog, ready to surprise. Indeed, based on the opening part, the balance of power between the teams became quite clear – KuPS is a higher quality entity and there are more skilled players on the individual side. However, the charm spirit can be a devilish obstacle to overcome. If Milsami manages to score the opening goal, the people of Kuopio will face a tough and possibly insurmountable test.
My guess is that Simo Valakari setting tactical traps for the hosts. Regarding Präss, the team is capable of modifications. In addition, it would not be a surprise if ball control is favored by the home team, in which case KuPS will be enticed to dominate the opponent’s entire form. In this case, KuPS would have better seams for counter-attacks after possessions, when there is more space in the back. This Jaakko Oksanen, Filip Valencic, Janis Ikaunieks mixed Tim Vayrynen know how to make good use of it.
I expect a controlled performance from the people of Kuopio. Defense is taken carefully and Milsami is still trying to keep in few quality positions. Based on these starting points, Kukköngin should be a fairly clear favorite, even in the away field. In terms of goal expectations, it is also worth noting that for Milsam as an underdog, a tie is almost certainly “enough”, i.e. in a tie at the end of the second period, the winning goal is not actively sought, but rather the prevailing situation is defended.
I estimate KuPS to be a 52 percent favorite in the match. Therefore, Veikkaus’s odds are closest to a home win, for which 4.50 is distributed, while Arvioni’s event has 22 pins (limit odds 4.54). You can’t quite get into the game with these estimates, and there are no advantages in handicap items either.
I have estimated the expected goal value of the match at 2.65, i.e. for less than 2.5 goals My estimate is 50 percent. Thus, Veikkaus’ coefficients are not enough for games in goal number targets either. The most likely final results of the match are 1–1, 0–1 and 0–2.
The match starts at 19:00.
The best betting tip of the day
Pikkunätti can be found instead in the second Finnish match of the Conference League qualifier, where Norwegian Lilleström hosts SJK.
The opening part left little doubt as to which of the teams is better. Lilleström is second in the Norwegian main league, and even though the game has been a little fluctuating in recent weeks, Lilleström has been really cool especially on his home field. In the six home games of the season, the team has only scored twice, and the team has practically scored two goals per match.
This time, SJK has really big challenges to even break into good scoring positions. Lilleström turns the game really well and is particularly good at changing direction. At home, LSK also wants to control the flow of the ball more. In the opening half, ball control was fairly evenly distributed, but the Norwegians created more scoring chances. Now the club has a more fast-paced recording.
Veikkaus gives Lilleström’s -1.5 handicap an odds of 1.89. My estimate for this is 55 percent, which makes the limit coefficient 1.82. However, the expected value remains too thin to raise the target to an official game recommendation.
The match starts at 20:00.
Games of the day: Not cricket.
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