When Americans woke up Saturday morning to learn that the United States had invaded Venezuela and kidnapped its president, they probably expected their country’s elected officials to explain why it had happened.
After months of military buildup and activity in the Caribbean, it came as no surprise that the United States finally decided to launch a crusade to overthrow Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
What was astonishing, however, was that America’s latest regime change operation appeared to be designed to keep the regime itself intact.
Unclear reasons for the military deployment
Helpfully, President Donald Trump appeared before the press on Saturday along with his key Cabinet members to clear everything up. Among the reasons he cited for the war was the drug war (“These drugs mostly come from a place called Venezuela”). Migration (“They sent all the bad people to the United States”). Terrorism (“a ceaseless campaign of violence, terror and subversion”). And even the altruistic export of American ideals (“We want peace, freedom and justice for the great people of Venezuela”).
Oh…and oil. “As everyone knows, the oil business in Venezuela has been a disaster for a long time. A total disaster. They have produced almost nothing compared to what would have been possible,” Trump said. And promised that US companies will go to Venezuela and “start making money for the country.”
Now you can choose which of these reasons was the real trigger for the military operation. Or come up with your own. There are several explanations that seem as plausible as anything that has been put forward: curbing Chinese influence in America, a strategy to weaken Cuba, a bruise to Trump’s ego in the face of Nicolás Maduro’s dancing defiance… Or simply an uncontrollable urge to demonstrate uncompromising toughness in the style of “‘Murica” after decades of frustration and failure in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Open announcement of a takeover
Given these failures, the most surprising thing about Saturday’s press conference was the open declaration that America would take control of Caracas.
“We will lead the country until we achieve a safe, orderly and thoughtful transition,” Trump said, later adding: “We are not afraid of ground troops when we need them.”
Many observers could hardly have been more shocked even if a steroid-crazed Uncle Sam had kicked down the door and hit them between the eyes with a star-spangled banner and a club. Here an American president openly ordered a regime change and admitted to setting up a puppet government – and all without diplomatic phrases or lofty ideals. Everything was open on the table. America takes over Venezuela. Why? To make money with its oil. How? Well, through Delta Force – and then a shrug and a vague wave in the direction of the State Department.
“[Außenminister] Marco [Rubio] is working directly on it,” Trump said, noting that Venezuela’s vice president – a regime loyalist – appeared to have taken the lead after Maduro disappeared in the night with several new American acquaintances. “He just talked to her and she’s basically ready to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again.”
Contradiction from Caracas
Unfortunately, just a few hours later, the woman in question denied in a televised speech that she would cooperate with the gringos. “There is only one president in Venezuela and his name is Nicolás Maduro,” said Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodríguez.
Many Venezuelan opponents of the regime were initially thrilled that Maduro had been overthrown. However, they were much more gloomy given the fact that Rodríguez was now at the helm. And that Washington’s decapitation strike apparently did not sever the snake’s head, but merely removed a hydra’s head. Maduro is gone. However, his regime remains in power.
“This is the first time I’ve asked myself if I’m on the wrong side of US politics,” a Venezuelan opposition activist tells ROLLING STONE. “The US is now supporting the regime instead of fighting it.”
However, they are certain that the situation is still fluid and believe that the Trump administration will ultimately work with “whoever is easiest to manipulate, corrupt and make deals with.”
Fear of instability and civil war
“What is the strategy? Who should actually be in power?” asks a former American special operations soldier with expertise in South America who previously worked in the region.
He says mistrust within Maduro’s regime is now at its peak as senior officials become convinced that at least one of their compatriots is secretly working with the Americans to seize power. With Maduro’s disappearance, upheaval is inevitable, which could lead to internal conflicts – possibly even a civil war.
“We are in for a rollercoaster ride of pretenders to the throne. But anyone who comes to power with Washington’s blessing will have no legitimacy,” observes the former soldier. He adds that he believes the only thing that can truly unite Venezuelans is resistance to U.S. control. “After destabilizing the country, what does Washington actually want?”
What actually?
Military success, strategic emptiness
There could hardly have been a more perfect scenario to demonstrate American military power than the raid to kidnap Maduro. All elite units of the US military and national security architecture were deployed. It was a powerful testament to the trillions of dollars America has invested in cutting-edge weapons technology. Combined with decades of practical experience conducting special operations.
There is no question that Washington has military resources that are superior to any competitor. The problem is that tactical victories do not guarantee strategic success. The idea that one country can simply attack another militarily out of nowhere and change its government at will without any complications is an illusion. See America in Iraq or Afghanistan or Russia in Chechnya or Ukraine.
Many commentators and critics focus on the broader consequences of the attack on Venezuela, its legality, or the idea that it could usher in a new era of realpolitik as described by Thucydides. That “the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.”
Double standards of world order
What, these commentators ask, prevents Russia or China from doing the same in Ukraine or Taiwan?
You don’t have to be a cynic to believe that the answer has less to do with the norms of international law than with pure military capability. Russia attempted to capture President Volodymyr Zelensky several times in the first days of its large-scale attack on Ukraine in February and March 2022. It failed. With heavy losses for his special forces.
Trump’s move into Venezuela was undoubtedly a military success. Its wider consequences remain to be seen. But it is another step toward an unfettered imperial presidency that is actively working to dismantle a global system of America’s own making while sowing chaos at home and abroad.
Paper shields have never stopped those in power from harassing weaker neighbors. And most world leaders put legality and morality aside when it serves their interests. Trump is not the first. The international order that America has long promoted is a system of double standards, hypocritically applied or rejected. Depending on the whims of Washington.
MAGA supporters deny that this system has benefited the United States. They argue that in a world where most states follow their self-interest, the era of “America First” is at least more honest.
You can also call this system the law of the jungle.
But of course not all animals in the jungle have nuclear weapons.