After the customs shock, the US stock markets are recovered. But experts warn: The risks for investors are far from off the table.
• US stock markets recover to the customs shock noticeably
• Experts skeptical: Send consumption and labor market warning signals
• High ratings and bonds remain risk for investors
The punitive tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump in April 2025 had panic investors. Recession worries spread to the financial markets and it seemed as if the bull market in the United States was now overturning after a strong two and a half year old Rally. But surprisingly things turned out differently: a 90-day de-escalation phase in the trade conflict with China caused relief and a clear countermovement on the stock markets in May.
Experts warn: Risks for investors remain
Despite these price gains, many experts remain careful. “There are reasons for optimism,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management, an interview with Marketwatch. “But there are still many headlines. Even with this massive de -escalation, the average customs set is still above everything we have seen in the past 75 years.”
According to Jonathan Pingle, US chief economist from UBS Investment Bank, the temporary suspension of the China-Zölle should noticeably reduce the average US customs set-instead of increasing to 24 percent, it should now be around 15 percent.
First warning signals: Consumption weakens – labor market shows cracks
However, the effects of the tariffs are increasingly putting a strain on the US consumption. Households in particular are noticeable with expenses. This is shown, among other things, the current quarterly figures of McDonald’s, which, according to some analysts, are an indication of a declining willingness to consume. According to the Marketwatch, the consumer values in the S&P 500, which are among the largest losers of the year, are also performed accordingly weakly.
There are also warning signals from US market. The number of employment in April was on expectations, but Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixi’s Investment Managers Solutions, puts this into perspective and expects this data to be revised downwards. At the same time, wage growth is wiped out – a problem if consumers are additionally hit by higher import prices.
“We see a tug of war between optimism on the trading front and, in our opinion, negatively distorted economic data,” Melson told Marketwatch. “There is a risk of a rather lean growth over the course of the year.”
The stock assessment remains high – and thus the fall height
Another concern of the analysts: Despite economic uncertainties, US shares are still highly rated. A decline in corporate profits could therefore quickly result in disproportionate price losses.
Callie Cox, chief market strategy at Ritholtz Wealth Management, also warned in an email to Marketwatch: “Markets ultimately follow the profits and the economy. But the prospects for both of them have hardly improved with today’s messages. This is worried about me […] Recreation rallies could not do little if the foundation crumbles. “Even solid corporate numbers as in the company in S&P 500 – with a profit growth of 13.4 percent reported by Factset in the first quarter compared to the previous year – could not be sufficient in an uncertainty in order to stabilize the stock exchange in the long term, according to the experts.
Experts warn: Lye bond dates – danger to stock markets?
The pension market is an additional stress factor. The yield of ten-year-old US state bonds recently increased to 4.444 percent and thus approaches the psychologically important 5 percent mark (as of May 16, 2025). Another attraction that, according to Ross Mayfield, could lead to a re -evaluation of shares. “It is currently a difficult environment. Of course, the news is good, it is a risk-on market-but if the 10-year-old goes too high, the stock markets could react very negatively,” he told Marketwatch.
According to experts, the risks remain: high ratings, weak consumption, a fragile labor market and increasing bonding ends could quickly make the recent recovery quickly. It remains to be seen for the time being whether these warnings come true or the markets can continue their upward trend.
Editor finance.net
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