The gold price has been on a high flight since the beginning of the year. Should you still put money into the yellow precious metal in view of this? This is what experts say.
• Gold record run at the beginning of 2025
• Central bank purchases and the desire for protection are spa drivers
• Experts expect to continue these trends
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The gold price climbed from record to record this year. The trade conflict between the USA and China, which could have an impact on the further development of the global economy, is an important price driver. “The possible economic consequences of a customs dispute between the USA and China trigger fears of global recession and increasing inflation in investors,” said precious metal dealer Dominik Sperzel from Heraeus, according to dpa, commented on the current development. In such situations, assets are more likely. “Gold is traditionally viewed as a preferred protection against economic uncertainties and crises,” recalled Sperzel.
High central bank demand for gold
The gold price also receives support from central banks from emerging countries. They, especially since they were able to observe how the democratic western states, reacted enormously with hard sanctions to the Russian attack war against Ukraine – their stocks on the yellow precious metal because they want to make their reserves more independent of the US dollar. “The central banks have been on the gold market for 15 years. The central bank of Poland, Turkey or India are particularly noteworthy this year. But China also made purchases again after a break. Other countries such as the Czech Republic, Iraq or Hungary Also reported an increase in gold stocks in the past few months, “quotes” Cash.Ch “Juan Carlos Carlos Artigas, Head of Global Research at the World Gold Council (WGC).
Gold outlook for 2025 – that’s what experts say
As long as the uncertainty remains on the market, the gold price is hardly noticeable, my experts. According to the “Cash.ch”, Claudio Wewel, currency strategist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin in Zurich, is particularly optimistic about further gold price development. He sees the yellow precious metal climbing to $ 3,000 in 2025. In his opinion, geopolitical fragmentation is generally favorable for gold, while the gradual weakening of the US dollar should offer additional tailwind: “The purchases of the central banks of the emerging countries have increased since 2022, and we assume that this structural trend continues” the expert explained and therefore sees a price target of $ 3,100 in the end of 2026.
However, you are a little more reserved at UBS, where you refer to a possibly subdued gold demand from ETFs if the US Federal Reserve should only decide this year. But although this would dampen further price increases in precious metals, the risk of return is only considered rather low: “We find that gold prices have risen sharply in recent years despite strong dollars and higher US interest rates – partly due to the diversification The reserves of the central banks and partly due to the demand from investors. the major Swiss bank, which see the gold price at $ 2,850 at the end of 2025.
With their optimism, the experts from UBS and J. Safra Sarasin are not alone. A survey by the London Bullion Market Association among raw material experts was expected to expect an average price of $ 2,736.69 for 2025. That would be 14.7 percent higher than the average price for 2024 ($ 2,386.20). However, a large forecasted trading range (from $ 2,290.00 to $ 3,290.00) indicates that the analysts surveyed expect significant price volatility for 2025.
Editor finance.net
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