From a seasonal point of view, the approach of the 4th quarter is fundamentally good news. After all, the last quarter is traditionally the best for the stock markets! This behavior pattern is known to many investors as a “phenomenon of year -overally”. Therefore, we had regularly presented a strategy at this point that only rely on the DAX® in the last three months of the year and is otherwise not invested. Based on the data since 1988, the German default values were able to increase by almost 7 % in the last quarter. The stock barometer also achieves this impressive result with an astonishing consistency, ie the annual financial statements actually bring price gains in good regularity. In 2018, the last year with loss losses in the final section. In total there have been only four negative 4th quarters (1991, 2000, 2008 and 2018) over the past 37 years. In total, this leads to a convincing hit rate of a good 88 %. Our evaluation takes into account neither transaction costs nor interest, so that the actual performance should be even better (Continuation see DAX® analysis (quarterly) from September 30, 2025).
DAX® (Quarterly)
Source: LSEG, HSBC² / 5-year-old in the appendix
5-year-chart DAX®
Source: LSEG, Tradesignal²
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