At the start of the week, the German stock market is reacting sensitively to the latest developments on the customs front. The bears are gaining dominance.
The DAX started trading 1.34 percent lower at 24,940.47 points, well below the psychologically important 25,000 mark. After that he stays on red territory.
The latest DAX record
It was only on Tuesday, January 13th that the DAX reached an all-time high of 25,507.79 points, exceeding the threshold of 25,500 points for the first time in its history. Ultimately, it ended the day at 25,420.66 points, which was a new record based on the closing price.
Trump announces punitive tariffs
The background is the dispute over Greenland. Trump wants to annex the Arctic island, which belongs to Denmark, to the USA and had announced additional tariffs against Germany, Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Great Britain in order to implement his plan. The US tariffs should apply until an agreement is reached on the complete purchase of the Arctic island, as Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. From February 1st, 10 percent will be due for goods sent to the USA, and from June 1st, 25 percent.
Meanwhile, the affected European countries want to talk about possible countermeasures.
“It’s still rhetoric. There are still two weeks left for negotiations,” commented portfolio manager Thomas Altmann from QC Partners. But there is a threat of an unprecedented spiral of tariffs, counter-tariffs and other measures. Unlike in previous cases, Altmann suspects that the European Union will probably not give in this time. In any case, the surge on the stock market is over for now, even if the setback initially remains manageable.
Quiet trading
Right at the start of the week, significantly fewer foreign investors are involved on Monday. Because of “Martin Luther King Day” there is no trading on the US stock exchanges. In view of possible market-relevant headlines on a long weekend, this poses a certain risk, the experts at Index Radar wrote predictably on Friday: “The markets like breaks, but surprises usually don’t.”
Price rally only with a break?
From the point of view of expert Uwe Streich from Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, the now high valuation is obviously not enough to slow down the price rally. But he sees a number of other risks: “US President Donald Trump is working on a new world order, the AI story is showing the first cracks, and the US Federal Reserve is in danger of losing its independence.” However, looking at the past three strong years in the DAX, investors believed they were safe and underestimated the dangers.
Investors’ attention is likely to initially turn from the corporate world, which typically receives particular attention during reporting season, to political events. A special EU summit is being considered, possibly online. The World Economic Forum in Davos could also be an opportunity for crisis discussions: US President Donald Trump is expected there on Wednesday, as is Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU).
What investors can expect this week
In the USA, for example, quarterly figures from the streaming giant Netflix, the conglomerate 3M and the airline United Airlines are due out this week. In this country, however, not many company reports are expected yet.
On the economic side, the purchasing managers’ indices are likely to attract particular attention on Friday. “The real upswing in corporate activity is still a long time coming, both in Germany and in Europe as a whole,” commented Robert Greil, chief strategist at private bank Merck Finck. Although the economy is likely to perform somewhat better in 2026 than in the previous year, not least thanks to the lower interest rates, optimism is still a long way away.
In addition to fresh producer price data from Germany, ZEW economic expectations are also likely to play a role on Tuesday. Based on encouraging signals from industry in the fourth quarter, the German economy could have started the new year with momentum, wrote Simon Azarbayjani from Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba). The ZEW survey should therefore show a little more economic confidence.
Editorial team finanzen.net / dpa-AFX / Dow Jones Newswires
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