“Game changer” at the beginning of the week? That is currently the all-important question for the DAX®. While investors could still expect a sideways phase in the last few months despite the lack of upward momentum, things have looked different since yesterday. At their lowest level since March (15,329 points), the German standard values have broken through the ultimate holding zone from the 200-day line (currently at 15,554 points) and the lows from July and August at 15,469/15,456 points. As a result, the price development since spring must now be interpreted as a top formation (see chart). The mathematical discount potential – derived from the upper reversal – can be estimated at around 1,000 points and is therefore in very good harmony with the March low of 14,458 points. But even if you “only” take into account the smaller sliding zone since the beginning of August between a good 16,000 and almost 15,500 points, there remains a potential for a reduction of a good 500 points. In order to improve the damaged chart picture, the DAX® would have to regain the above-mentioned average of the last 200 days as quickly as possible. The only glimmer of hope: There have been no “breaks” on the downside in the USA so far (see Analysis 2).
Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal² / 5-year chart attached
5-year chart DAX®
Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²
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