In view of the economic crisis and customs dispute, the credit insurer Allianz Trade expects more company bankruptcies in Germany – including many large insolvencies with high damage.
“Due to the customs spiral, the insolvencies in the Federal Republic of 2025 are expected to increase by eleven percent compared to the previous year to around 24,400 cases,” says a current study.
Allianz Trade had previously expected an increase of ten percent. In 2026, another increase should follow by three percent on 25,050 cases.
As early as 2024, the number of bankruptcies had grown by a fifth (plus 22 percent). “According to France, Germany is the most affected market in Western Europe – and one of a few countries that still has to expect rising figures in 2026,” writes the credit insurer.
No breather
But it is not only the total numbers that were worried, but also the constantly high numbers of large insolvencies with many affected jobs.
In view of the cloudy economic prospects in Germany as well as world trade and many uncertainties due to the customs dispute, the credit insurer also calculated in 2025 with many large insolvencies and thus high damage, said Milo Bogaerts, head of Allianz Trade in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. “With their suppliers: Inside, these particularly large holes tear into the coffers – with possible domino effects on the supply chains.”
Wirkind fashion trade
The past year has already marked a negative record for large insolvencies in Germany, said Bogaerts. There were a total of 87 large insolvencies with a total turnover of 17.4 billion euros – an increase of a good third of the previous year (64 cases). “Also in 2025 there is no breather.”
The negative trend continues: In the first quarter of 2025, 16 large companies had to register bankruptcy. Among them were three large companies in retail. The fashion manufacturer Gerry Weber had filed for bankruptcy in March, recently announcing the closure of all business.